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Herreshoff Qualifier - Duxbury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets 8 19 27
2 Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 17 16 33
3 The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 18 15 33
4 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Magicians 15 20 35
5 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 15 24 39
6 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 26 17 43
7 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 31 13 44
8 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 25 20 45
9 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 34 37 71
10 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 38 39 77
11 Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 37 44 81
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets 2 1 4 1 8 Hannah Freeman '22
Lena Brzezinski '19
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Magicians 1 6 3 5 15 Islay Van Dusen '18
Anna O'Connor '20
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 3 4 5 3 15 Hailey Feinzig '18 [1-4]
Maia Grissino '20 [1-2]
Margaret Benson '19 [3-4]
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 6 3 6 2 17 Rebecca Hillestad '18
Isabella Clemens '18
The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 8 2 1 7 18 Payton Canavan '19
Isabella De Santis '20
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 5 7 2 11 25 Faith Cournoyer '19
Ashley Breyer '20
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 4 5 9 8 26 Mia Matteucci '20 [1-4]
Megan Yorsz '20 [1-2]
Abby Stewart '22 [3-4]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 11 9 7 4 31 Caroline Williams '19
Corinne Lee '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 8 8 9 34 Elizabeth Thompson '18
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 10 11 10 6 37 Delaney Saluja '20 [1-4]
Pryia Swegles '20 [1-2]
Tess Gibson '19 [3-4]
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 7 10 11 10 38 Devon Hartigan '19
Victoria Conrad '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 7 3 2 1 13 Katie Lojko '19 [1-4]
Caroline Williams '19 [1-2]
Elizabeth Linsdell '20 [3-4]
The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 5 1 6 3 15 Avery Canavan '21
Laura Borges '20
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 1 5 8 2 16 Taylor Schinto '18
Louisa Bjerke '18
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 2 7 6 17 Isabel Croteau '20 [1-4]
Sara Morrison '20 [1-2]
Olivia Wiatrowski '20 [3-4]
Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets 4 7 4 4 19 Sirine Benali '19
Micaela Coonley '18
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Magicians 3 8 1 8 20 Tyler Lubek '19
Magdelaina Putnam '20
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 6 6 3 5 20 Ceci Bohan '20
Jackie Morrison '18
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 8 4 5 7 24 Catherine Zhu '18 [1-4]
Elizabeth Harrington '18 [1-2]
Emily Lo '20 [3-4]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 9 9 10 37 Neddie Clews '21
Alice Thompson '21
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 10 10 10 9 39 Katie Blinn '19 [1-2, 4]
Maeve Clifford '19 [3]
Maeve Clifford '19 [1-2, 4]
Katie Blinn '19 [3]
Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 11 11 11 11 44 Lydia Bennett '20 [1-4]
Tess Gibson '19 [1-2]
Michelle Aldazabal '18 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons1133
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals2244
Manchester/Essex RHSManchester/Essex RHS Hornets3355
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Magicians4466
Middletown High SchoolMiddletown High School Islanders5577
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks6688
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs7799
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens881010
The Prout SchoolThe Prout School Crusaders991111
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raiders101011
Winchester High SchoolWinchester High School Sachems111122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons2244
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals3355
Manchester/Essex RHSManchester/Essex RHS Hornets4466
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Magicians5577
Middletown High SchoolMiddletown High School Islanders6688
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks7799
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs881010
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens991111
The Prout SchoolThe Prout School Crusaders101011
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raiders111122
Winchester High SchoolWinchester High School Sachems1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Caroline Williams '19 Corinne Lee '19
Dragons Katie Lojko '19 [1-4] Caroline Williams '19 [1-2]
Elizabeth Linsdell '20 [3-4]
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Rebecca Hillestad '18 Isabella Clemens '18
Cardinals Taylor Schinto '18 Louisa Bjerke '18
Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hannah Freeman '22 Lena Brzezinski '19
Hornets Sirine Benali '19 Micaela Coonley '18
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Islay Van Dusen '18 Anna O'Connor '20
Magicians Tyler Lubek '19 Magdelaina Putnam '20
Middletown High School Middletown High School Delaney Saluja '20 [1-4] Pryia Swegles '20 [1-2]
Tess Gibson '19 [3-4]
Islanders Lydia Bennett '20 [1-4] Tess Gibson '19 [1-2]
Michelle Aldazabal '18 [3-4]
Natick High School Natick High School Devon Hartigan '19 Victoria Conrad '22
Redhawks Katie Blinn '19 [1-2, 4]
Maeve Clifford '19 [3]		 Maeve Clifford '19 [1-2, 4]
Katie Blinn '19 [3]
Portland High School Portland High School Elizabeth Thompson '18 Lucy Kilbreth '20
Bulldogs Neddie Clews '21 Alice Thompson '21
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Faith Cournoyer '19 Ashley Breyer '20
Ravens Ceci Bohan '20 Jackie Morrison '18
The Prout School The Prout School Payton Canavan '19 Isabella De Santis '20
Crusaders Avery Canavan '21 Laura Borges '20
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Hailey Feinzig '18 [1-4] Maia Grissino '20 [1-2]
Margaret Benson '19 [3-4]
Raiders Catherine Zhu '18 [1-4] Elizabeth Harrington '18 [1-2]
Emily Lo '20 [3-4]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Mia Matteucci '20 [1-4] Megan Yorsz '20 [1-2]
Abby Stewart '22 [3-4]
Sachems Isabel Croteau '20 [1-4] Sara Morrison '20 [1-2]
Olivia Wiatrowski '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 04/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1010.1 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Duxbury Bay Maritime School: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Duxbury Bay Maritime School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Duxbury Bay Maritime School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →