St. Johns Prep '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 48.65 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.118 rating points from 34 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | St. Johns Prep | 0.73 | 53.69 | 37.50 | 3 of 4 | 14 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–8 (20%) as crew 5–14 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | — | 4–10 |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 1–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 7–22 against 7.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | crew | 1.34 | 1.93 | 4–10 | 2.9 | +0.59 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2025-05-17 | MBL TR Tournament | skipper | 0.37 | -0.79 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.16 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2023-05-21 | MBL Team Race Tournament | crew | 0.25 | -0.23 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| 2026 NESSA O’Day Qualifier - Sharon | Crew | A | 5 | 5.0 | +0.19 |
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Crew | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Donald Green Regatta 26 | Crew | A | 3 | 3.7 | +0.03 |
| Carl Zimba MBL Champs - 420A | Crew | A | 4 | 4.0 | -0.03 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy | Crew | A | 10 | 6.0 | +0.04 |
| MBL TR Tournament | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| 420A - 2025 Zimba MBL Championship | Crew | A | 4 | 6.0 | -0.09 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Mass States hosted by BU | Crew | A | 8 | 4.0 | -0.04 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MBL Team Race Tournament | Crew | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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