| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Duxbury High School | Dragons | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Winchester High School | Varsity | 6–4 |
| 3 |  |
Sharon High School | Eagles | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Hingham High School | Harbormen | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Wellesley High School | Raiders | 4–6 |
| 6 |  |
St. Johns Prep | Eagles | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,761 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 30 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.674 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.62 ± 0.59: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duxbury High School | 3.36 | 4.83 | 8–2 | 5.7 | +1.47 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 5 | Wellesley High School | 2.20 | 2.59 | 4–6 | 3.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 2 | Winchester High School | 3.18 | 3.56 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 4 | Hingham High School | 2.82 | 2.98 | 5–5 | 4.7 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 6 | St. Johns Prep | 2.38 | 1.22 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.16 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 3 | Sharon High School | 4.04 | 2.77 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.27 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syd Vecchiotti | Wellesley High School | 0.22 | 2.25 | 4–2 | 1.9 | +2.03 | 2.4 | 8% |
| Casey Teahan | Hingham High School | 0.57 | 2.31 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +1.74 | 1.1 | 25% |
| Jack Bailey-Gates | Duxbury High School | 0.24 | 1.71 | 8–2 | 5.7 | +1.47 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Kaitlin Hynes | Wellesley High School | 1.23 | 1.62 | 4–6 | 3.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 44% |
| William Macneille | Winchester High School | 1.50 | 1.88 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Ashton Marnik | Winchester High School | 0.49 | 0.87 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Nick Russo | Winchester High School | 1.11 | 1.49 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Madeleine Accettella | Hingham High School | 1.18 | 1.34 | 5–5 | 4.7 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Henry Smith | Hingham High School | 0.25 | -0.54 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.80 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Jack Morgan | St. Johns Prep | 1.14 | -0.01 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.16 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Conor Mcgeown | St. Johns Prep | 0.37 | -0.79 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.16 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Arthur Do | Sharon High School | 0.96 | -0.31 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.27 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Thomas Ha | Sharon High School | 0.73 | -0.54 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.27 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Phoebe Foraste | Wellesley High School | 0.74 | -2.26 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Harbormen | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Eagles | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Harbormen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Harbormen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Harbormen | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Harbormen | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 DSQ | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Harbormen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Harbormen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Dragons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Harbormen | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Dragons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Harbormen | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Harbormen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Dragons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Duxbury High School | Dragons | Derek Kirby '25 Jack Bailey-Gates '28 Vaughan Knecht '25 |
Clara Destenaves '27 Anya Schabort '26 Kylie Gallagher '25 |
|
Winchester High School | Varsity | Ashton Marnik '26 Nick Russo '25 William Macneille '25 |
Sean '27 Noah Dengler '25 Skyler Marnik '25 |
|
Sharon High School | Eagles | Arthur Do '25 Ethan Huang '26 Thomas Ha '26 |
Henry Comeau '25 Ray Luo '25 Josh Raikman '27 |
|
Hingham High School | Harbormen | Caroline O'Hara '25 Casey Teahan '28 Henry Smith '28 Madeleine Accettella '26 |
Colin Cleary '25 Chris Hoppe '25 Grace Mahoney '28 |
|
Wellesley High School | Raiders | Evan Hinchley '25 Kaitlin Hynes '25 Phoebe Foraste '27 Syd Vecchiotti '25 |
Avery Thornton '25 Kathleen Gallico '25 Chloe Malek '26 Nina Lowe '25 Phoebe Foraste '27 |
|
St. Johns Prep | Eagles | Conor Mcgeown '26 Jack Morgan '26 Jeremiah Mccarthy '26 |
Thomas Wakelin '26 Davis Ferreira '27 John Gabriel '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
