Winchester High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.28) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–12 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 10–12 against 9.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | MBL TR Tournament | skipper | 1.11 | 1.49 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2024-05-11 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 0.79 | 0.64 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 1.20 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.7 | 0.39 |
| MBL TR Tournament | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| MBL Fleet Race Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | 0.01 |
| Donald Greene Regatta 2025 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 1.53 |
| Courageous Sailing Keelboat Kickoff Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| 420B - 2025 Zima MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.8 | 1.72 |
| Spring 2024 Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Hyannis, MA | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 0.18 |
| MBL Team Race Tournament | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Keelboat Kickoff Keelboat | Crew | B | 4 | 1.8 | — |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.7 | 0.90 |
| Spring 2023 Season | |||||
| Merc Silver - 2023 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.6 | 0.09 |
| MBL Freshman/Sophomore Regatta | Crew | B | 5 | 2.0 | +0.09 |
| Donald Greene Regatta '23 | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.4 | 1.20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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