Merc Silver - 2023 Zimba MBL Championship

HostSharon
Date05/22/2023
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Duxbury High School	Dragons	23	23
2	Sharon High School	Eagles	49	49
3	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	50	50
4	Wellesley High School	Raiders	52	52
5	Hingham High School	Hingham	59	59
6	The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats	62	62
7	Winchester High School	Sachems	64	64
8	Boston Latin School	Wolfpack	84	84
9	Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 1	93	93
10	Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 2	94	94
11	Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 3	102	102
12	Cambridge R&L School	Falcons	112	112
13	Natick High School	Redhawks	117	117
14	Beaver Country Day School	Beavers	131	131
15	Wayland High School	Wayland Varsity	131	131
16	Commonwealth School	Mermaids	143	143

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Duxbury High School	Dragons	2	1	1	2	1	2	5	3	5	1	23	Ella Notis '23 Andrew Tenney '23
Sharon High School	Eagles	5	7	6	9	11	3	1	2	2	3	49	Rohan Shah '23 Akash Shah '23
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	1	2	10	7	2	1	7	8	3	9	50	Declan Walsh '26 Lucas Sabatini '24
Wellesley High School	Raiders	15	8	8	4	3	5	3	1	1	4	52	Timothy Cronin '23 [1-4] Evan Hinchley '25 [5-10] Isabella Pavano '23 [1-4] Kathleen Gallico '25 [5-10]
Hingham High School	Hingham	3	3	5	1	7	7	9	9	7	8	59	Maddie Cleary '28 [1-5] Audrey Smith '26 [6-10] Jessica Scipione '27 [1-5] Chris Hoppe '25 [6-10]
The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats	4	6	4	13	4	8	6	4	8	5	62	Emma Ortner '29 [1-5] Paige Fenton '26 [6-10] Alisa Ross '26 [1-5] Ella Luo '27 [6-10]
Winchester High School	Sachems	6	11	3	12	6	4	4	7	9	2	64	Nick Russo '25 [1-5] Ashton Marnik '26 [6-10] Mann Shoffner '23 [1-5] Sean Morrison '23 [6-10]
Boston Latin School	Wolfpack	10	12	2	10	9	12	10	5	4	10	84	Ava Mackinnon '26 [1-5] Owen Peterson '24 [6-10] Justin Paik '23 [1-5] Benjamin Jacobson '25 [6-10]
Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 1	8	5	7	8	5	13	11	12	11	13	93	Unregskip '23 Unregcrew '24
Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 2	14	10	9	3	10	10	8	11	12	7	94	Julia Gordon '23 [1-5] Molly Aubertine '23 [6-10] Alice Fisher '23 [1-5] Cole Hunter '23 [6-10]
Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 3	11	13	13	5	12	6	2	14	14	12	102	Unregskip '23 Unregcrew '26
Cambridge R&L School	Falcons	13	14	14	6	14	9	12	10	6	14	112	Nora Pierce '26 Sebastien Ruiz Samojluk '25
Natick High School	Redhawks	12	4	11	14	8	14	14	13	16	11	117	Evan Nolan '23 [1-5] Matt Tracy '24 [6-10] Alex Rendall '25 [1-5] Nathan Scharr-Weiner '25 [6-10]
Beaver Country Day School	Beavers	7	9	15	11	13	15	16	16	13	16	131	Audrey Youngen '23 [1-5] Madelyn Bell '26 [6-10] Reese Shoettle '24 [1-5] Charlotte (Onyx) Lacey '25 [6-10]
Wayland High School	Wayland Varsity	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	11	13	6	10	6	131	Felix Zapf '25 John Bennett '24
Commonwealth School	Mermaids	9	15	12	15	15	DNF	15	15	15	15	143	Moses Frumkin '23 Niall Powers-Ozyhurt '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79
Beaver Country Day School Beavers	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80
Boston Latin School Wolfpack	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
Cambridge R&L School Falcons	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82
Commonwealth School Mermaids	83	83	83	83	83	83	99	99	99	99
Duxbury High School Dragons	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84
Hingham High School Hingham	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
Natick High School Redhawks	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87
Sharon High School Eagles	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90
The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94
Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 1	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86
Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 2	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88
Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 3	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89
Wayland High School Wayland Varsity	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91
Wellesley High School Raiders	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92
Winchester High School Sachems	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	Declan Walsh '26	Lucas Sabatini '24
Beaver Country Day School	Beavers	Audrey Youngen '23 [1-5] Madelyn Bell '26 [6-10]	Reese Shoettle '24 [1-5] Charlotte (Onyx) Lacey '25 [6-10]
Boston Latin School	Wolfpack	Ava Mackinnon '26 [1-5] Owen Peterson '24 [6-10]	Justin Paik '23 [1-5] Benjamin Jacobson '25 [6-10]
Cambridge R&L School	Falcons	Nora Pierce '26	Sebastien Ruiz Samojluk '25
Commonwealth School	Mermaids	Moses Frumkin '23	Niall Powers-Ozyhurt '23
Duxbury High School	Dragons	Ella Notis '23	Andrew Tenney '23
Hingham High School	Hingham	Maddie Cleary '28 [1-5] Audrey Smith '26 [6-10]	Jessica Scipione '27 [1-5] Chris Hoppe '25 [6-10]
Natick High School	Redhawks	Evan Nolan '23 [1-5] Matt Tracy '24 [6-10]	Alex Rendall '25 [1-5] Nathan Scharr-Weiner '25 [6-10]
Sharon High School	Eagles	Rohan Shah '23	Akash Shah '23
The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats	Emma Ortner '29 [1-5] Paige Fenton '26 [6-10]	Alisa Ross '26 [1-5] Ella Luo '27 [6-10]
Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 1	Unregskip '23	Unregcrew '24
Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 2	Julia Gordon '23 [1-5] Molly Aubertine '23 [6-10]	Alice Fisher '23 [1-5] Cole Hunter '23 [6-10]
Unregistered-NESSA	MBL Coop 3	Unregskip '23	Unregcrew '26
Wayland High School	Wayland Varsity	Felix Zapf '25	John Bennett '24
Wellesley High School	Raiders	Timothy Cronin '23 [1-4] Evan Hinchley '25 [5-10]	Isabella Pavano '23 [1-4] Kathleen Gallico '25 [5-10]
Winchester High School	Sachems	Nick Russo '25 [1-5] Ashton Marnik '26 [6-10]	Mann Shoffner '23 [1-5] Sean Morrison '23 [6-10]

Conditions — 05/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.3 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 24.5 kn

From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn · SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Sharon: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.20 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sharon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Sharon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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