Unregistered-NESSA '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.01 (fleet -0.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.23 ± 0.16 better at team racing than the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–30 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 60–30 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (90 matches) the record is 60–30 against 27.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+32.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 43 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | Southern Maine Team Race | skipper | -0.05 | 2.27 | 60–30 | 27.1 | +2.32 | 43.0 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SundaySeries 3 Dev | Skipper | A, B | 18 | 8.2 | — |
| Sunday Series Champs | Skipper | A, B | 32 | 9.8 | — |
| Stag's Leap | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | -2.04 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Maine Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Crew | B | 3 | 22.0 | +0.00 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.0 | 1.71 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Merc Silver - 2023 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 20 | 9.8 | -0.71 |
| Merc Gold - 2023 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.7 | -1.59 |
| Donald Greene Regatta '23 | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.8 | 0.92 |
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| 420B - 2023 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.1 | -1.89 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
