Southern Maine Team Race

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 11,148 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 45 matches (49%) with a log-loss of 0.818 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.80 ± 0.36: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1	5	0.84 school +0.41	Unregskip / Unregcrew 30–0 Unregskip / Unregcrew	30%	15–0 (100%)	+10.5
2	Lincoln Academy Eagles	1	3.60 school −0.33	Toby Clarkson / Piper Carleton 2.10 Otto Schoenthal / Sam Scott 1.51 Griffin Chace / Noah Arbuckle 0.26	81%	10–5 (67%)	−2.1
3	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	2	3.24	Tess Straw / Celeste Tourangeu 1.05 Story Straw / Keaton Mosunic 1.14 Gabe Tourangeau / Luca Kleeman	75%	8–7 (53%)	−3.2
4	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	3	1.69 school −0.05	No Name / No Show 0.23 No Name Ii / No Show No Show / No Show	46%	7–8 (47%)	+0.1
5	Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2	6	0.83 school +0.41	Unregskip / Unregcrew 10–20 Unregskip / Unregcrew	30%	5–10 (33%)	+0.5
6	Cheverus High School Stags	4	1.28	No Show / No One No One / No One No One / No One `	38%	0–15 (0%)	−5.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1	0.84	3.84	15–0	4.5	≥+3.00	23.4	<1%
5	Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2	0.83	1.05	5–10	4.5	+0.22	0.1	49%
4	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	1.69	1.74	7–8	6.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
2	Lincoln Academy Eagles	3.60	2.54	10–5	12.1	−1.06	1.3	96%
3	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	3.24	1.80	8–7	11.3	−1.44	2.8	99%
6	Cheverus High School Stags	1.28	-1.72	0–15	5.7	≤−3.00	9.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Unregskip	Unregistered-NESSA	-0.05	2.27	60–30	27.1	+2.32	43.0	<1%
No Name	Falmouth High School (ME)	0.23	0.28	7–8	6.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
No Name Ii	Falmouth High School (ME)	0.57	0.63	7–8	6.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
No Show	Falmouth High School (ME)	0.47	0.52	7–8	6.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
Otto Schoenthal	Lincoln Academy	1.51	0.45	10–5	12.1	−1.06	1.3	96%
Tess Straw	Cape Elizabeth High School	1.05	-0.39	8–7	11.3	−1.44	2.8	99%
Story Straw	Cape Elizabeth High School	1.14	-0.31	8–7	11.3	−1.44	2.8	99%
Gabe Tourangeau	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.99	-0.45	8–7	11.3	−1.44	2.8	99%
No Show	Cheverus High School	0.54	-2.46	0–15	5.7	≤−3.00	9.9	>99%
No One	Cheverus High School	0.20	-2.80	0–15	5.7	≤−3.00	9.9	>99%
No One	Cheverus High School	0.03	-2.97	0–15	5.7	≤−3.00	9.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Southern ME 2	3-4-5
2		Southern ME 1	1-2-4	def.		Stags	3-5-6
3		Navigators	1-2-4	def.		Capers	3-5-6
4		Southern ME 1	1-2-4	def.		Southern ME 2	3-5-6
5		Capers	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
6		Navigators	2-3-4	def.		Stags	1-5-6
7		Southern ME 1	1-3-4	def.		Capers	2-5-6
8		Southern ME 2	2-3-4	def.		Stags	1-5-6
9		Navigators	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
10		Capers	1-2-5	def.		Stags	3-4-6
11		Southern ME 1	1-4-5	def.		Eagles	2-3-6
12		Navigators	1-2-6	def.		Southern ME 2	3-4-5
13		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Stags	4-5-6
14		Capers	2-3-5	def.		Southern ME 2	1-4-6
15		Southern ME 1	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
16		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Southern ME 2	3-4-6
17		Southern ME 1	1-2-4	def.		Stags	3-5-6
18		Capers	2-3-5	def.		Navigators	1-4-6
19		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Southern ME 2	4-5-6
20		Eagles	1-2-4	def.		Capers	3-5-6
21		Navigators	1-2-6	def.		Stags	3-4-5
22		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
23		Southern ME 2	2-3-4	def.		Stags	1-5-6
24		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
25		Capers	1-2-4	def.		Stags	3-5-6
26		Southern ME 1	1-2-6	def.		Eagles	3-4-5
27		Southern ME 2	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
28		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Stags	3-4-6
29		Southern ME 2	1-2-6	def.		Capers	3-4-5
30		Southern ME 1	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
31		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Southern ME 2	4-5-6
32		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Stags	4-5-6
33		Capers	1-2-4	def.		Navigators	3-5-6
34		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Southern ME 2	4-5-6
35		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
36		Navigators	1-2-3	def.		Stags	4-5-6
37		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
38		Southern ME 2	1-2-3	def.		Stags	4-5-6
39		Eagles	2-3-4	def.		Navigators	1-5-6
40		Capers	1-2-3	def.		Stags	4-5-6
41		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
42		Navigators	2-3-5	def.		Southern ME 2	1-4-6
43		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Stags	4-5-6
44		Capers	1-2-5	def.		Southern ME 2	3-4-6
45		Southern ME 1	1-2-3	def.		Navigators	4-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 1	Unregskip '23	Unregcrew '26
	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Griffin Chace '26 Otto Schoenthal '25 Toby Clarkson '24	Noah Arbuckle '25 Sam Scott '27 Piper Carleton '24
	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	Gabe Tourangeau '27 Story Straw '25 Tess Straw '24	Luca Kleeman '27 Keaton Mosunic '28 Celeste Tourangeu '26
	Falmouth High School (ME)	Navigators	No Name '25 No Name Ii '23 No Show '24	No Show '25
	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 2	Unregskip '23	Unregcrew '24
	Cheverus High School	Stags	No One '24 No Show	No One '26 No One ` '26