Sharon High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.27 (fleet 1.94) | 121 of 231 | +0.08 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–39 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 11–19 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 13–11 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 12–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 36–39 against 32.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.56 | 1.71 | 7–9 | 6.6 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.46 | 2.25 | 4–10 | 2.8 | +0.79 | 0.5 | 28% |
| 2025-05-17 | MBL TR Tournament | skipper | 1.61 | 0.34 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.27 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.43 | 2.09 | 8–6 | 6.5 | +0.66 | 0.6 | 27% |
| 2024-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.24 | 0.65 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2024-05-11 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 0.91 | 2.70 | 9–3 | 5.2 | +1.79 | 3.7 | 3% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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