| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hingham High School | Harborwomen | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Wellesley High School | Raiders | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Winchester High School | Sachems Women | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Sharon High School | Eagles | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Boston Latin School | Wolfpack | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
Beaver Country Day School | Beavers | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | Knights | 3–3 |
| 8 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | MBL 2 | 2–4 |
| 9 | |
Unregistered-NESSA | MBL 1 | 2–5 |
| 10 |  |
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,148 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 10 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.640 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.37 ± 0.96: a typical event, more orderly than 20% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wellesley High School Raiders | 2 | 1.30 school −0.15, home +0.15 | Kaitlin Hynes / Kathleen Gallico 1.18 Isabelle De Fontaine / Avery Thornton 0.47 Sophie Balter / Nina Lowe | 60% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Winchester High School Sachems Women | 1 | 1.42 school −0.18 | Ashton Marnik / Audra Murray Karenna Marnik / Skyler Marnik No Show / Mer Procops | 62% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.5 |
| 6 | Beaver Country Day School Beavers | 4 | 0.85 | Kaileigh Ferrero / Addie Marsh Elinor Grant / Ruby Nielsen Gracie Goodman / Ruby Richmond | 49% | 3–1 (75%) | +1.1 |
| 8 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 2 | 5 | -0.43 school +0.41 | Abigail Weekly / Alma Bewsher Eloise M / Frances Sailor Kate Capporino / Mairead Ferrie | 22% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.1 |
| 9 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 1 | 5 | -0.43 school +0.41 | Abigail Weekly / Alma Bewsher Eloise M / Frances Sailor Kate Capporino / Mairead Ferrie | 22% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.1 |
| 10 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 3 | 1.22 school −0.15 | Unregskip / Unregcrew No One / No One Mystery Skipper / Mystery Crew 0.05 | 56% | 0–4 (0%) | −2.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Beaver Country Day School Beavers | 0.85 | 2.42 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.57 | 0.9 | 28% |
| 2 | Wellesley High School Raiders | 1.30 | 2.21 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.91 | 0.3 | 48% |
| 3 | Winchester High School Sachems Women | 1.42 | 2.22 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 9 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 1 | -0.43 | -0.21 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 10 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 1.22 | -1.78 | 0–4 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaileigh Ferrero | Beaver Country Day School | 0.35 | 1.92 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.57 | 0.9 | 28% |
| Gracie Goodman | Beaver Country Day School | -0.50 | 1.07 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.57 | 0.9 | 28% |
| Kaitlin Hynes | Wellesley High School | 1.18 | 2.09 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.91 | 0.3 | 48% |
| Isabelle De Fontaine | Wellesley High School | 0.47 | 1.38 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.91 | 0.3 | 48% |
| Sophie Balter | Wellesley High School | -0.45 | 0.46 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.91 | 0.3 | 48% |
| Ashton Marnik | Winchester High School | 0.55 | 1.35 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Karenna Marnik | Winchester High School | 0.35 | 1.15 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| No Show | Winchester High School | 0.54 | 1.34 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Abigail Weekly | Unregistered-NESSA | -0.16 | 0.06 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Eloise M | Unregistered-NESSA | -1.16 | -0.95 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Kate Capporino | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.26 | 0.48 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Unregskip | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.54 | -2.46 | 0–4 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| No One | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.68 | -2.32 | 0–4 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wellesley High School Raiders | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 1 | 81% | |
| 1 | 2 | Winchester High School Sachems Women | Beaver Country Day School Beavers | 62% | |
| 1 | 3 | Wellesley High School Raiders | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 53% | |
| 1 | 4 | Winchester High School Sachems Women | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 1 | 81% | |
| 1 | 5 | Beaver Country Day School Beavers | Wellesley High School Raiders | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 1 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 23% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Wellesley High School Raiders | Winchester High School Sachems Women | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Beaver Country Day School Beavers | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Beaver Country Day School Beavers | Unregistered-NESSA MBL 1 | 73% | |
| 1 | 10 | Winchester High School Sachems Women | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 55% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MBL 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Sachems Women | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 4 | |
Sachems Women | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MBL 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Beavers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
MBL 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sachems Women | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 9 | |
Beavers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MBL 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Sachems Women | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Harborwomen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MBL 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Harborwomen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Knights | 1-4-5 | def. | |
MBL 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Harborwomen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
MBL 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Harborwomen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MBL 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Harborwomen | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Harborwomen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Harborwomen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sachems Women | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Sachems Women | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
MBL 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
MBL 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Knights | 1-4-5 | def. | |
MBL 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
MBL 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
MBL 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 31 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 32 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Wellesley High School | Raiders | Isabelle De Fontaine '24 Kaitlin Hynes '25 Sophie Balter '24 |
Avery Thornton '24 Kathleen Gallico '25 Nina Lowe '25 |
|
Winchester High School | Sachems Women | Ashton Marnik '26 Karenna Marnik '24 No Show |
Audra Murray '24 Skyler Marnik '25 Mer Procops '26 |
|
Beaver Country Day School | Beavers | Elinor Grant '27 Gracie Goodman '27 Kaileigh Ferrero '26 |
Ruby Nielsen '27 Ruby Richmond '27 Addie Marsh '28 |
|
Unregistered-NESSA | MBL 1 | Abigail Weekly '27 Eloise M '24 Kate Capporino '25 |
Alma Bewsher '24 Frances Sailor '24 Mairead Ferrie '24 |
|
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | Mystery Skipper '17 No One '24 Unregskip '23 |
Mystery Crew '18 No One '26 Unregcrew '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
