| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Jones College Prep | Eagles | 9–3 |
| 4 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 8–4 |
| 5 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 3–6 |
| 7 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 2–7 |
| 9 |  |
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Raiders | 2–7 |
| 10 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,148 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 51 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.494 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.26 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Latin School of Chicago | 5.25 | 7.07 | 9–3 | 6.2 | +1.82 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 3 | Jones College Prep | 5.38 | 7.06 | 9–3 | 6.4 | +1.68 | 2.3 | 8% |
| 4 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.09 | 6.36 | 8–4 | 5.8 | +1.27 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 5 | Minnetonka High School | 4.90 | 5.18 | 5–4 | 4.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 7 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 4.27 | 3.80 | 3–6 | 3.6 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 6 | New Trier HS | 4.66 | 3.75 | 3–6 | 4.2 | −0.91 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 9 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 3.90 | 2.90 | 2–7 | 3.1 | −0.99 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 1 | Lake Forest High School | 8.47 | 6.99 | 10–2 | 11.3 | −1.48 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 8 | West Bloomfield High School | 5.34 | 2.70 | 2–7 | 5.4 | −2.64 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 10 | Detroit Country Day School | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–9 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Gray | Latin School of Chicago | 1.48 | 3.30 | 9–3 | 6.2 | +1.82 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Robert Danciu | Latin School of Chicago | 0.70 | 2.52 | 9–3 | 6.2 | +1.82 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Evy Engebretson | Minnetonka High School | 1.61 | 1.89 | 5–4 | 4.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Avery Baldwin | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 2.29 | 1.82 | 3–6 | 3.6 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Preston Levy | New Trier HS | 0.82 | 0.17 | 3–4 | 3.7 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia | New Trier HS | 1.62 | 0.71 | 3–6 | 4.2 | −0.91 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Frank Ribich | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 1.50 | 0.51 | 2–7 | 3.1 | −0.99 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Owen Smith | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.88 | -0.11 | 2–7 | 3.1 | −0.99 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Nat Green | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.91 | -0.08 | 2–7 | 3.1 | −0.99 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Charlie Gish | Lake Forest High School | 2.53 | 1.05 | 10–2 | 11.3 | −1.48 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Aarush Kapur | Detroit Country Day School | 0.32 | -2.68 | 0–9 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Ashwin Kesliker | Detroit Country Day School | -0.18 | -3.18 | 0–9 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Andrew Wiand | Detroit Country Day School | 0.97 | -2.03 | 0–9 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 1-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Romans | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Romans | 2-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Romans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 1 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Romans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Skippers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Romans | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Trevian | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Trevian | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Romans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Skippers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-3-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
