Minnetonka High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 (fleet 2.62) | 75 of 231 | +0.08 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 46–22 (68%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 20–14 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 13–3 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 46–22 against 41.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | skipper | 2.10 | 1.71 | 15–13 | 16.7 | −0.39 | 0.4 | 82% |
| 2026-04-12 | MISSA NW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.95 | 3.20 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.25 | 0.5 | 38% |
| 2025-05-10 | LMSS Team Race 2025 | skipper | 1.74 | 4.74 | 12–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 2025-04-12 | MISSA Baker NW prequalifier | skipper | 1.60 | 1.35 | 1–3 | 1.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2024-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier 2024 | skipper | 1.65 | 1.93 | 5–4 | 4.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2024-04-14 | West Baker Pre-Qualifiers | skipper | 1.53 | 2.49 | 8–1 | 7.1 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS #3 @WBSS | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 0.91 |
| MISSA NW Mallory Prequalifier @ Sheboygan | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.5 | 2.50 |
| MISSA NW Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier 2026 | Skipper | A | 17 | 4.1 | 3.39 |
| 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | Skipper | TR | 28 | 54% | — |
| 2026 ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.5 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.4 | 1.90 |
| MISSA Mallory NWPrequalifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 0.79 |
| LMSS Team Race 2025 | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| 2025 Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 2.18 |
| MISSA Baker NW prequalifier | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| West Baker Pre-Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| West Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.5 | 0.37 |
| MISSA - Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.1 | 0.65 |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier 2024 | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| 2024 Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 0.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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