| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | 5–1 |
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Pewaukee High School | Pirates | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,250 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.255 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.62 ± 0.61: an orderly event, more orderly than 88% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arrowhead High School Warhawks | 1 | 4.93 school −0.17 | John Lieber / Max Sellers 2.06 Nicholas Berkowitz / Joseph Cavanaugh 1.99 Cole Bebeau / Mark Sellers 0.97 | 80% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.2 |
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 2 | 4.39 school −0.40 | Connor Jewett / Lia Getlin 1.99 Reese Kottke / Joey Kim 1.50 Maggie Mcgary / Cayla Beddor 1.28 | 70% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.8 |
| 3 | Wayzata High School Navy | 3 | 2.72 school +0.06 | Evan Weber / Liam Strobel Harper Gordon / Harper Lundeen-Hetland 0.72 Stonewall Anderson / Chloe Johnson 1.39 | 37% | 2–4 (33%) | −0.2 |
| 4 | Pewaukee High School Pirates | 4 | 1.17 | Will Beres / Natalie Blackwood Pierre Lambert / Jillian Blackwood Tyler David / Louise Lambert | 12% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 4.39 | 5.61 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.21 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 1 | Arrowhead High School | 4.93 | 5.24 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 3 | Wayzata High School | 2.72 | 2.40 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 4 | Pewaukee High School | 1.17 | -1.83 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Mcgary | Minnetonka High School | 1.28 | 2.49 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.21 | 0.5 | 39% |
| Nicholas Berkowitz | Arrowhead High School | 1.99 | 2.30 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Evan Weber | Wayzata High School | 0.45 | 0.13 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Stonewall Anderson | Wayzata High School | 1.39 | 1.07 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Navy | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pirates | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | Cole Bebeau '27 John Lieber '26 Nicholas Berkowitz '28 |
Mark Sellers '26 Max Sellers '28 Joseph Cavanaugh '27 |
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Connor Jewett '26 Maggie Mcgary '28 Reese Kottke '26 |
Lia Getlin '26 Cayla Beddor '29 Joey Kim '26 |
|
Wayzata High School | Navy | Evan Weber '29 Harper Gordon '26 Stonewall Anderson '26 |
Liam Strobel '29 Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27 Chloe Johnson '26 |
|
Pewaukee High School | Pirates | Pierre Lambert '27 Tyler David '27 Will Beres '27 |
Jillian Blackwood '29 Louise Lambert '29 Natalie Blackwood '29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
