| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Raiders | 6–3 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
Marquette University High School | Hill Toppers | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,731 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 18 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.386 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.76 ± 0.55: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 1 | 4.54 school −0.34 | Evy Engebretson / Amelia Sulciner 1.66 Connor Jewett / Parker Laing Sofia Sigel / Lucy Zinn | 79% | 8–1 (89%) | +0.9 |
| 2 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders | 2 | 3.42 school +0.43 | Nat Green / Jake Leismer 0.70 Frank Ribich / Reece Foree 1.13 Owen Smith / Ben Karle 1.01 | 55% | 6–3 (67%) | +1.0 |
| 3 | Wayzata High School Navy | 3 | 2.82 | Dominik Moncur / Harper Lundeen-Hetland 1.48 Stonewall Anderson / Harper Gordon 1.01 Alyson Liu / Britta Lundeen-Hetland 0.11 | 42% | 4–5 (44%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Marquette University High School Hill Toppers | 4 | 1.96 | Henry Ackley / Aiden Dimino Declan Mccormick / Reuben Pike Carson Boemer / Baron Reuter | 23% | 0–9 (0%) | −2.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 4.54 | 5.51 | 8–1 | 7.1 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 3.42 | 4.15 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 3 | Wayzata High School | 2.82 | 2.97 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 | Marquette University High School | 1.96 | -1.04 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evy Engebretson | Minnetonka High School | 1.66 | 2.63 | 8–1 | 7.1 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 41% |
| Nat Green | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.70 | 1.43 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Frank Ribich | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 1.13 | 1.85 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Owen Smith | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 1.01 | 1.73 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Stonewall Anderson | Wayzata High School | 1.01 | 1.16 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Alyson Liu | Wayzata High School | 0.11 | 0.26 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Declan Mccormick | Marquette University High School | -0.26 | -3.26 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
| Carson Boemer | Marquette University High School | 0.90 | -2.10 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 3 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navy | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Navy | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Navy | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navy | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Navy | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Skippers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hill Toppers | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Connor Jewett '26 Evy Engebretson '24 Sofia Sigel '24 |
Parker Laing '24 Amelia Sulciner '24 Lucy Zinn '24 |
|
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Raiders | Frank Ribich '26 Nat Green '24 Owen Smith '24 |
Reece Foree '27 Jake Leismer '24 Ben Karle '24 |
|
Wayzata High School | Navy | Alyson Liu '24 Dominik Moncur '25 Stonewall Anderson '26 |
Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25 Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27 Harper Gordon '26 |
|
Marquette University High School | Hill Toppers | Carson Boemer '27 Declan Mccormick '24 Henry Ackley '24 |
Baron Reuter '25 Reuben Pike '26 Aiden Dimino '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
