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Dusty Waters Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3 10 25 35
2 Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Varsity 22 16 38
3 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 27 17 44
4 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 24 25 49
5 Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 36 13 49
6 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 35 33 68
7 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 27 50 77
8 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1 46 39 85
9 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2 46 52 98
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3 1 2 4 1 1 1 10 John Lieber '26
Aiden Calagui '26
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Varsity 3 7 1 2 6 3 22 David Kiss '23
Julia Janssen '22
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 2 4 DNF 3 3 2 24 Charlie Bruss '24
Tyler David '27
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 4 3 2 4 5 9 27 Adam Biwer '22
Cole Bebeau '27
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 8 1 3 8 2 5 27 Sydney Urben '22
Marge Probst '23
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 7 6 7 5 4 6 35 Quinn O'Dell '26
William Sobol '23
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 6 8 5 6 7 4 36 Olivia Finck '22 [1-2]
Keely Troup '22 [3-6]
Emmy Troup '25 [1-2]
Olivia Finck '22 [3-4]
Charlie Sauter '25 [5-6]
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1 5 5 DNF 9 9 8 46 Logan Pond '22
Owen Smith '24
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2 9 9 6 7 8 7 46 George Hurtado '25
Caleb Schultz '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 3 4 1 1 3 1 13 Logan Filar '25 [1-6]
Kai Nordahl '26 [1-2]
Emmy Troup '25 [3-6]
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Varsity 4 2 2 3 2 3 16 Nathan Kamath '24
Ava Kiss '25
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 1 3 4 2 5 2 17 Tanner Theisen '23
Henry Schlichting '27
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3 2 6 3 6 4 4 25 Elizabeth Allen '26
Avery Bembenek '27
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 5 1 7 5 1 6 25 Jack Goggins '27
Will Beres '27
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 7 5 5 4 7 5 33 Kai Suh-Pomierski '25
Max Frost '27
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1 6 7 6 7 6 7 39 Frank Ribich '26
Ellie Turcotte '27
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 8 8 8 9 8 9 50 Carly Elliot '27 [1-6]
Brea Bertsch '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Sample '25 [3-4]
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2 9 9 9 8 9 8 52 Kyle Irby '26
Carolyne Van Deventer '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 1111113131515
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 2121214141616
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 3131315151717
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings141416161818
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School VARSITY151517171919
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1181811111313
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2191912121414
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons161618181111
Pewaukee High SchoolPewaukee High School Varsity171719191212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 1121214141616
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 2131315151717
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 3141416161818
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings151517171919
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School VARSITY161618181111
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1191912121414
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2111113131515
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons171719191212
Pewaukee High SchoolPewaukee High School Varsity181811111313

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1011.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn · S 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Arrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Marquette/Oconomowoc: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Arrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Marquette/Oconomowoc by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Arrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Marquette/Oconomowoc, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →