Brainerd High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–10 (44%) as crew 1–2 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | — | 1–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 9–12 against 10.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | skipper | 0.87 | 0.25 | 8–10 | 9.7 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2021-05-15 | MN Conference #2 | crew | -0.46 | 0.09 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Season | |||||
| Minnesota MSS Fall 2022 #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 1.06 |
| Conference #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 2.25 |
| Art Johnson | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 0.82 |
| 2022 MN Fall Conference #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | 0.10 |
| Spring 2022 Season | |||||
| Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| MSS Conference #2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.2 | 0.03 |
| MN Spring Conference #3 | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 1.22 |
| Minnesota Conference #4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2021 Season | |||||
| MSS Conference #3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | 0.35 |
| MN Fall Conference #4, 2021 | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | 0.07 |
| MN Fall Conference #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 0.14 |
| Spring 2021 Season | |||||
| MN Conference #3 at Minneapolis Sailing Center | Crew | A | 7 | 11.0 | — |
| MN Conference #2 | Crew | TR | 3 | 33% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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