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MN Fall Conference #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 30 17 47
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 8 41 12 53
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 32 32 64
4 Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 1 19 59 78
5 Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 61 18 79
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 7 60 22 82
7 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 1 53 54 107
8 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 50 87 137
9 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 75 65 140
10 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 78 64 142
11 Providence Academy Providence Academy Mixed 100 44 144
12 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 19 126 145
13 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 40 112 152
14 Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 77 78 155
15 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 6 96 71 167
16 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 91 84 175
17 Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 2 91 86 177
18 Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson Jaguars 90 95 185
19 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 89 110 199
20 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 95 119 214
21 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 129 91 220
22 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 2 127 97 224
23 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 113 114 227
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 1 2 2 5 3 6 19 Max Sigel '22
Bryce Lesinski '23
Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 1 3 6 1 3 5 1 19 Kytalin Hendrickson '22
Hunter Wheaton '23
Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 6 1 3 1 2 17 30 Alexandre Cholat '22
Rose Pereira '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 5 4 8 4 4 7 32 Tryg Van Wyk '22
David Piper '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 12 11 4 2 1 10 40 Marley Barrett '23
Katherine Vonsmith '27
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 8 4 5 5 7 11 9 41 Jacob Zils '23
Jordi Malaret '23
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 8 8 7 6 10 11 50 Sam Fider '22
Helene Schroeder '22
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 1 7 12 9 8 9 8 53 Owen Harrod '22
Akaycia Belisle '25
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 7 11 3 10 17 16 3 60 Katherine Ahlquist '24
Opal Ofstedal '24
Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 2 7 16 13 7 16 61 Virginia Higgins '22
Natalie Richardson '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 9 9 19 15 18 5 75 Nigel Yu '24
Amelia Sulciner '24
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 18 14 11 12 20 2 77 Kristoffer Koop '24
Sebastian Tisdell '24
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 20 10 6 10 17 15 78 Dominik Moncur '25
Joseph Snyder '24
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 13 22 12 11 19 12 89 Alyson Liu '24
Aiden Kennedy '25
Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson Jaguars 14 19 15 14 6 22 90 George Slaats '23
Madeline Netzer '22
Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 2 10 18 20 9 13 21 91 Caden Houge '23
Henry Jackson '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 17 16 23 16 15 4 91 Parker Abed '22
Austin Shaw '23
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 16 17 13 21 14 14 95 Robbie Dresen '25
Lucy Guidinger '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 6 19 13 18 19 8 19 96 Isabela Snow '23
No Show
Providence Academy Providence Academy Mixed 15 15 14 20 23 13 100 Connor Shore '22
Caleb Thompson '25
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 22 20 17 22 12 20 113 Samantha Forgosh '22
Chloe Apperatt '22
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 2 21 23 21 18 21 23 127 Jack Colosi '25
Ethan Stohr '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 23 21 22 23 22 18 129 Giovanni Decarli '24
Charlie Nichols '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 8 1 3 5 1 1 1 12 Teddy Bower '26
Joey Kim '26
Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 2 4 2 3 3 3 17 Leo Markus '23
Erik Westgard '22
Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 3 1 6 2 4 2 18 Grady Van Ness '22
Alex Wyatt '27
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 7 4 2 1 5 5 5 22 Lucy Zinn '24
Gwen Nechas '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 8 5 4 9 2 4 32 Jack Wherry '23
Katharine Woodburn '27
Providence Academy Providence Academy Mixed 5 7 10 6 10 6 44 Clare Kracht '22
Catherine Kracht '22
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 1 10 10 12 8 7 7 54 Joshua Drivdahl '25
Aliya Determan '26
Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 1 7 8 15 4 14 11 59 Rory Baker '24
Aiden Ide '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 12 16 7 11 6 12 64 Isaac Sparber '22
Andy Corbett '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 11 18 3 10 9 14 65 Sameer Bhatia '24
Hazel Eiden '25
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 6 15 13 11 12 12 8 71 Gwyn Noller '25
Renata Hernandez '27
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 14 11 20 7 11 15 78 Brandon Eberts '25
Tristan Raimann '27
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 13 6 19 13 DSQ 9 84 Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25
Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27
Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 2 18 14 14 17 13 10 86 Martin Weiss '22
Sam Jackson '23
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 22 15 8 21 8 13 87 Leif Rush '27
Dylan Mcdonald '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 17 9 9 20 16 20 91 Jack Brellenthin '26
Graham Pierce '26
Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson Jaguars 6 17 18 15 17 22 95 Franklin Hurt '25
Luke Dubois '22
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 2 21 12 13 14 20 17 97 Ella Wisely '23
Nora Yocum '22
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 19 21 16 16 15 23 110 Jack Karban '23
William Barrett '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 16 20 17 19 22 18 112 Aaron Cleary '23
Ray Taha '26
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 9 22 21 22 19 21 114 Alex Bixby '25 [1-6]
Stella Townshend '22 [1-4]
Sofie Muschenheim '25 [5-6]
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 23 19 22 18 18 19 119 Akaycia Belisle '25
Niamh Mcmahon '26
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 20 23 23 23 21 16 126 Gloria Jorczak '24
Anastasia Gilbert '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Warriors724772477247724772477247
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Hornets719371937193719371937193
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 1111111111111
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 2121212121212
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1724672467246724672467246
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2161616161616
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3722772277227722772277227
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 4555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 5272727272727
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 6222222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 7888888
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 8444444
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Mixed721672167216721672167216
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Spartans 1722872287228722872287228
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Spartans 2614261426142614261426142
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Mixed719471947194719471947194
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers612612612612612612
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Millers722672267226722672267226
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed151515151515
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 1291291291291291291
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 2414141414141
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears292292292292292292

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Warriors724772477247724772477247
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Hornets719371937193719371937193
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 1111111111111
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 2121212121212
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1724672467246724672467246
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2161616161616
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3722772277227722772277227
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 4555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 5272727272727
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 6222222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 7888888
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 8444444
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Mixed721672167216721672167216
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Spartans 1722872287228722872287228
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Spartans 2614261426142614261426142
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Mixed719471947194719471947194
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers612612612612612612
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Millers722672267226722672267226
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed151515151515
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 1291291291291291291
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 2414141414141
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears292292292292292292
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson George Slaats '23 Madeline Netzer '22
Jaguars Franklin Hurt '25 Luke Dubois '22
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Kristoffer Koop '24 Sebastian Tisdell '24
Warriors Brandon Eberts '25 Tristan Raimann '27
Edina High School Edina High School Virginia Higgins '22 Natalie Richardson '23
Hornets Grady Van Ness '22 Alex Wyatt '27
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 Akaycia Belisle '25
Mixed 1 Joshua Drivdahl '25 Aliya Determan '26
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Jack Colosi '25 Ethan Stohr '23
Mixed 2 Ella Wisely '23 Nora Yocum '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Tryg Van Wyk '22 David Piper '23
Skippers 1 Jack Wherry '23 Katharine Woodburn '27
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Marley Barrett '23 Katherine Vonsmith '27
Skippers 2 Aaron Cleary '23 Ray Taha '26
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nigel Yu '24 Amelia Sulciner '24
Skippers 3 Sameer Bhatia '24 Hazel Eiden '25
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Giovanni Decarli '24 Charlie Nichols '24
Skippers 4 Jack Brellenthin '26 Graham Pierce '26
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Sigel '22 Bryce Lesinski '23
Skippers 5 Gloria Jorczak '24 Anastasia Gilbert '26
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Isabela Snow '23 No Show
Skippers 6 Gwyn Noller '25 Renata Hernandez '27
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Katherine Ahlquist '24 Opal Ofstedal '24
Skippers 7 Lucy Zinn '24 Gwen Nechas '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 Jordi Malaret '23
Skippers 8 Teddy Bower '26 Joey Kim '26
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Samantha Forgosh '22 Chloe Apperatt '22
Mixed Alex Bixby '25 [1-6] Stella Townshend '22 [1-4]
Sofie Muschenheim '25 [5-6]
Orono High School Orono High School Kytalin Hendrickson '22 Hunter Wheaton '23
Spartans 1 Rory Baker '24 Aiden Ide '25
Orono High School Orono High School Caden Houge '23 Henry Jackson '25
Spartans 2 Martin Weiss '22 Sam Jackson '23
Providence Academy Providence Academy Connor Shore '22 Caleb Thompson '25
Mixed Clare Kracht '22 Catherine Kracht '22
Southwest High School Southwest High School Sam Fider '22 Helene Schroeder '22
Lakers Leif Rush '27 Dylan Mcdonald '24
Washburn High School Washburn High School Alexandre Cholat '22 Rose Pereira '22
Millers Leo Markus '23 Erik Westgard '22
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Parker Abed '22 Austin Shaw '23
Mixed Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25 Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Dominik Moncur '25 Joseph Snyder '24
Navy 1 Isaac Sparber '22 Andy Corbett '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Alyson Liu '24 Aiden Kennedy '25
Navy 2 Jack Karban '23 William Barrett '24
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Robbie Dresen '25 Lucy Guidinger '24
Bears Akaycia Belisle '25 Niamh Mcmahon '26

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From WSW (249°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1013.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Edina/Southwest Senior/St. Paul Academy - M/Washburn: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Edina/Southwest Senior/St. Paul Academy - M/Washburn by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Edina/Southwest Senior/St. Paul Academy - M/Washburn, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →