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MSS Conference #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 24 8 32
2 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 17 23 40
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 1 11 48 59
4 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 25 34 59
5 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 2 17 50 67
6 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 47 21 68
7 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 28 42 70
8 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 44 29 73
9 Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 60 20 80
10 Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 71 21 92
11 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 36 65 101
12 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 50 62 112
13 Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 51 63 114
14 Orono High School Orono High School Mixed 74 41 115
15 Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 50 75 125
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 1 1 2 2 1 5 11 Teddy Bower '26
Jordi Malaret '23
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 2 1 1 4 9 17 Hank Seum '23 [1-5]
Parker Ziegler '24 [1-2, 5]
Sofie Muschenheim '25 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 2 5 3 3 2 4 17 Nigel Yu '24
Bryce Lesinski '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 9 5 5 3 2 24 Katie Hanley '22
Carmen Lineer '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 6 6 4 6 3 25 Dominik Moncur '25
Robert Jones '23
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 7 4 8 8 1 28 Owen Harrod '22
Akaycia Belisle '25
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 3 7 13 7 6 36 Patrick Levins '22
Matthew Fish '24
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 8 9 6 13 8 44 Finn Edevold '24
Helene Schroeder '22
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 10 8 11 5 13 47 Paige Kurtenbach '23
Andy Corbett '23
Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 4 11 10 9 DNS 50 Alexandre Cholat '22
Rose Pereira '22
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 11 10 7 12 10 50 Stonewall Anderson '26
William Carberry '26
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 13 12 9 10 7 51 Kristoffer Koop '24 [1-5]
Teagan Hartwig-Burton '25 [1-2, 5]
Shelby Balmer '24 [3-4]
Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 12 14 12 11 11 60 Hunter Wheaton '23
No Show
Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 14 13 DNF DNF 12 71 Grady Van Ness '22
Alex Wyatt '27
Orono High School Orono High School Mixed DNF DNF 14 14 14 74 No Show
Riviera Wock '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 2 1 3 1 8 Evy Engebretson '24
David Acheson '24
Orono High School Orono High School Spartans 6 1 2 5 6 20 Sam Jackson '23
Austin Shaw '23
Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 2 7 3 6 3 21 Virginia Higgins '22
Tyler Utendorfer '22
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 4 9 5 1 2 21 Alyson Liu '24
Jack Karban '23
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 7 3 7 2 4 23 Robbie Dresen '25
Jack Colosi '25
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 3 6 4 11 5 29 Sam Fider '22
Leif Rush '27
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 10 4 6 7 7 34 Rafael Zarzosa '23
Aiden Kennedy '25
Orono High School Orono High School Mixed 9 5 10 8 9 41 Parker Abed '22
No Show
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 8 8 12 4 10 42 Ella Wisely '23
Stella Demars '25
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 1 11 11 9 9 8 48 Sofia Sigel '24
Parker Laing '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 2 5 13 8 10 14 50 Gwyn Noller '25 [1-4]
Jack Brellenthin '26 [5]
Amelia Sulciner '24 [1-4]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 14 10 11 14 13 62 Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25
Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 12 14 13 13 11 63 Brandon Eberts '25 [1-5]
Dana Balmer '26 [1-4]
Shelby Balmer '24 [5]
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 13 12 DNF 12 12 65 Stella Townshend '22
Ella Skeie '23
Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 15 DNF 14 15 15 75 Soren Miller-Sardelis '24
Natalie Richardson '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Warriors11223
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Hornets22334
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed33445
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Mixed 155667
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Mixed 266778
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers44556
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Mixed77889
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Mixed99101011
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Spartans889910
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers1010111112
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Millers1111121213
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed141415151
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 11212131314
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 21313141415
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears1515112

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Warriors11223
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Hornets22334
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed33445
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Mixed 155667
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Mixed 266778
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers44556
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Mixed77889
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Mixed99101011
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Spartans889910
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers1010111112
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Millers1111121213
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed141415151
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 11212131314
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy 21313141415
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears1515112
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Kristoffer Koop '24 [1-5] Teagan Hartwig-Burton '25 [1-2, 5]
Shelby Balmer '24 [3-4]
Warriors Brandon Eberts '25 [1-5] Dana Balmer '26 [1-4]
Shelby Balmer '24 [5]
Edina High School Edina High School Grady Van Ness '22 Alex Wyatt '27
Hornets Virginia Higgins '22 Tyler Utendorfer '22
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 Akaycia Belisle '25
Mixed Ella Wisely '23 Stella Demars '25
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Teddy Bower '26 Jordi Malaret '23
Mixed 1 Sofia Sigel '24 Parker Laing '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nigel Yu '24 Bryce Lesinski '23
Mixed 2 Gwyn Noller '25 [1-4]
Jack Brellenthin '26 [5]		 Amelia Sulciner '24 [1-4]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Katie Hanley '22 Carmen Lineer '23
Skippers Evy Engebretson '24 David Acheson '24
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Hank Seum '23 [1-5] Parker Ziegler '24 [1-2, 5]
Sofie Muschenheim '25 [3-4]
Mixed Robbie Dresen '25 Jack Colosi '25
Orono High School Orono High School No Show Riviera Wock '22
Mixed Parker Abed '22 No Show
Orono High School Orono High School Hunter Wheaton '23 No Show
Spartans Sam Jackson '23 Austin Shaw '23
Southwest High School Southwest High School Finn Edevold '24 Helene Schroeder '22
Lakers Sam Fider '22 Leif Rush '27
Washburn High School Washburn High School Alexandre Cholat '22 Rose Pereira '22
Millers Soren Miller-Sardelis '24 Natalie Richardson '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Stonewall Anderson '26 William Carberry '26
Mixed Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25 Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Paige Kurtenbach '23 Andy Corbett '23
Navy 1 Alyson Liu '24 Jack Karban '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Dominik Moncur '25 Robert Jones '23
Navy 2 Rafael Zarzosa '23 Aiden Kennedy '25
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Patrick Levins '22 Matthew Fish '24
Bears Stella Townshend '22 Ella Skeie '23

Conditions — 04/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1000.0 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.5 kn
avg  ·  max 16.9 kn
Gusts to 32.9 kn
From ESE (110°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.5 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1000.0 hPa Rain0.21 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at White Bear Lake: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 18% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at White Bear Lake by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at White Bear Lake, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →