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MCS Conference 4 Spring

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 33 34 67
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 33 42 75
3 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 2 35 43 78
4 St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed 51 38 89
5 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 62 34 96
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 68 31 99
7 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 2 35 81 116
8 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 3 63 66 129
9 Washburn High School Washburn High School Mixed 61 75 136
10 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 1 55 96 151
11 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 82 90 172
12 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 1 98 92 190
13 Orono High School Orono High School Mixed 120 85 205
14 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 1 108 112 220
15 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 3 98 123 221
16 Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Mixed 104 129 233
17 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 2 129 105 234
18 Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Mixed 134 102 236
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 2 3 7 4 2 11 3 1 33 Max Sigel '22
Madeline Wilson '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 9 11 1 1 1 6 2 2 33 Jacob Zils '23
Nicholas Wyatt '22
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 2 1 1 12 3 7 3 1 7 35 Calvin Lamosse '21
Gints Pelecis '21
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 2 7 9 4 2 5 1 4 3 35 Kate Ness '23
Grace Bray '23
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed 3 7 5 7 4 5 14 6 51 Finn Tait '21
Tj Isberg '21
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 1 5 4 16 5 6 4 6 9 55 Nicole Guiliani '20
Mason Pirner '21
Washburn High School Washburn High School Mixed 4 6 3 10 11 9 8 10 61 Alexandre Cholat '22
Natalie Richardson '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 16 5 11 6 3 12 5 4 62 Khan Dickel '20
Tristan Wischmeier '21
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 3 6 2 6 9 9 2 10 OCS 63 James Jagielski '21
Nils Wulfsberg '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 12 12 2 11 10 7 9 5 68 Marley Barrett '23
Jack Wherry '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 11 10 10 8 8 8 13 14 82 Katie Hanley '22
Amy Foster '22
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 1 8 15 9 13 12 13 11 17 98 Luke Schmidt '21
Mason Schneider '24
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 3 14 13 14 14 18 10 7 8 98 Belle Carpenter '23
Jose Varela '19
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Mixed 15 8 15 15 13 14 12 12 104 Logan Farner '20
Anneliese Farner '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 1 13 14 8 12 14 17 15 15 108 Olivia Riegert '20 [1-8]
Caroline Kohls '21 [1-6]
Alyson Liu '24 [7-8]
Orono High School Orono High School Mixed 10 18 13 18 16 15 17 13 120 Martin Weiss '22
Hunter Wheaton '23
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 2 18 17 18 16 17 16 16 11 129 Finnian Falvey '21
Emmanuel Hanson '20
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Mixed 17 16 17 17 15 18 18 16 134 Baden Bastien '22
Ethan Stohr '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 3 2 3 2 5 6 4 6 31 Garrett Moen '19
Rory Cole '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 11 4 4 4 1 3 5 2 34 Jack Callinan '23 [1-8]
Nicholas Wyatt '22 [1-4]
Jack Wherry '22 [5-6]
Tristan Wischmeier '21 [7-8]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 13 5 2 1 3 5 1 4 34 Tryg Van Wyk '22
Andrew Bertsch '22
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed 7 9 7 3 8 1 2 1 38 Madeline Netzer '22
Hayden Graff '21
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 1 3 1 16 7 4 3 7 42 Evan Komis '20
Carmen Lineer '22
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 2 2 1 5 7 4 2 DSQ 3 43 Finn Edevold '24
Ben King '20
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 3 5 12 9 5 2 8 14 11 66 Sam Fider '22
Spence Christensen '22
Washburn High School Washburn High School Mixed 18 6 6 9 6 9 12 9 75 Grady Van Ness '22
Alex Wicklund '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 2 12 10 10 6 9 11 8 15 81 Paige Kurtenbach '23
Emma Schliemann '23
Orono High School Orono High School Mixed 9 7 15 10 12 7 6 DNS 85 Louise Rosenbaum '20
Parker Abed '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mixed 4 15 14 8 11 14 11 13 90 David Carlson '23
Alex Chiesa '23
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 1 8 8 18 13 16 12 7 10 92 Anika Liner '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Samantha Forgosh '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Samantha Forgosh '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Anika Liner '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 1 14 14 8 11 18 10 13 8 96 Paul Wang '23 [1-8]
Christopher Bridgeman '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Nate King '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Mixed 16 13 12 14 10 13 DSQ 5 102 Jackson Medeck '24 [1-8]
Wyatt Holst '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Holmes '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 2 10 11 16 12 14 18 10 14 105 Kennedy Kruse '23
Sara Fraser '21
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 1 17 18 11 15 15 15 9 12 112 Ellen Adams '21 [1-8]
Annika Pendergast '23 [1-2, 5-8]
Alyson Liu '24 [3-4]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 3 6 16 13 17 17 16 DNS DNS 123 Delaney Mallin '21
Faith Christensen '21
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Mixed 15 17 17 DNF 13 17 15 16 129 Sophia Nelson '22
Aubrey Filanrinos '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Mixed55555555
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 122222222
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 21414141414141414
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 333333333
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Mixed1919191919191919
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 11616161616161616
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 244444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 388888888
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 466666666
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Mixed1313131313131313
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers 177777777
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers 21717171717171717
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers 311111111
St. Paul Academy (MN)St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed1818181818181818
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Mixed1515151515151515
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Mixed1111111111111111
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed 12121212121212121
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed 21212121212121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Mixed55555555
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 122222222
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 21414141414141414
MahtomediMahtomedi Mixed 333333333
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Mixed1919191919191919
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 11616161616161616
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 244444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 388888888
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 466666666
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Mixed1313131313131313
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers 177777777
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers 21717171717171717
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers 311111111
St. Paul Academy (MN)St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed1818181818181818
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Mixed1515151515151515
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Mixed1111111111111111
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed 12121212121212121
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed 21212121212121212
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Baden Bastien '22 Ethan Stohr '23
Mixed Jackson Medeck '24 [1-8] Wyatt Holst '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Holmes '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Luke Schmidt '21 Mason Schneider '24
Mixed 1 Anika Liner '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Samantha Forgosh '22 [3-4, 7-8]		 Samantha Forgosh '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Anika Liner '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Finnian Falvey '21 Emmanuel Hanson '20
Mixed 2 Kennedy Kruse '23 Sara Fraser '21
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Belle Carpenter '23 Jose Varela '19
Mixed 3 Delaney Mallin '21 Faith Christensen '21
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Katie Hanley '22 Amy Foster '22
Mixed David Carlson '23 Alex Chiesa '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Sigel '22 Madeline Wilson '20
Skippers 1 Jack Callinan '23 [1-8] Nicholas Wyatt '22 [1-4]
Jack Wherry '22 [5-6]
Tristan Wischmeier '21 [7-8]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Khan Dickel '20 Tristan Wischmeier '21
Skippers 2 Tryg Van Wyk '22 Andrew Bertsch '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 Nicholas Wyatt '22
Skippers 3 Evan Komis '20 Carmen Lineer '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Marley Barrett '23 Jack Wherry '22
Skippers 4 Garrett Moen '19 Rory Cole '22
Orono High School Orono High School Martin Weiss '22 Hunter Wheaton '23
Mixed Louise Rosenbaum '20 Parker Abed '22
Southwest High School Southwest High School Nicole Guiliani '20 Mason Pirner '21
Lakers 1 Paul Wang '23 [1-8] Christopher Bridgeman '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Nate King '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 Gints Pelecis '21
Lakers 2 Finn Edevold '24 Ben King '20
Southwest High School Southwest High School James Jagielski '21 Nils Wulfsberg '22
Lakers 3 Sam Fider '22 Spence Christensen '22
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Finn Tait '21 Tj Isberg '21
Mixed Madeline Netzer '22 Hayden Graff '21
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Logan Farner '20 Anneliese Farner '25
Mixed Sophia Nelson '22 Aubrey Filanrinos '20
Washburn High School Washburn High School Alexandre Cholat '22 Natalie Richardson '23
Mixed Grady Van Ness '22 Alex Wicklund '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Olivia Riegert '20 [1-8] Caroline Kohls '21 [1-6]
Alyson Liu '24 [7-8]
Mixed 1 Ellen Adams '21 [1-8] Annika Pendergast '23 [1-2, 5-8]
Alyson Liu '24 [3-4]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Kate Ness '23 Grace Bray '23
Mixed 2 Paige Kurtenbach '23 Emma Schliemann '23

Conditions — 05/11/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 13.0 kn
Gusts to 27.4 kn
From SSE (162°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1013.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Minnetonka: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.09 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →