| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Orono High School | Spartans 1 | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | 5–0 |
| 3 |  |
Southwest High School | Lakers | 5–1 |
| 4 |  |
St. Paul Academy (MN) | Spartans | 4–2 |
| 5 |  |
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | 3–2 |
| 5 | |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | 3–2 |
| 7 |  |
White Bear Lake High School | Mixed | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 2–3 |
| 9 |  |
Mounds Park Academy | Mixed | 2–4 |
| 10 |  |
Edina High School | Hornets | 1–5 |
| 11 |  |
Brainerd High School | Mixed | 1–5 |
| 12 | |
Orono High School | Spartans 2 | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,567 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 33 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.304 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.58 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 5.35 | 8.35 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| 1 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | 3.02 | 6.02 | 5–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| 3 | Southwest High School Lakers | 3.38 | 4.62 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.24 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 5 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 1.65 | 2.26 | 3–2 | 2.6 | +0.61 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 4 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | 2.62 | 3.00 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 9 | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | 0.71 | 0.90 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Wayzata High School Navy | 0.92 | 0.84 | 2–3 | 2.0 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 11 | Brainerd High School Mixed | -1.11 | -1.25 | 1–5 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 5 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | 3.20 | 2.79 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 10 | Edina High School Hornets | 0.31 | -1.20 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.51 | 0.8 | 95% |
| 7 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | 3.49 | 1.23 | 2–3 | 3.5 | −2.25 | 1.9 | 99% |
| 12 | Orono High School Spartans 2 | -1.23 | -4.23 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Anderson | Orono High School | 0.05 | 3.05 | 5–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| Jack Callinan | Minnetonka High School | 0.90 | 1.51 | 3–2 | 2.6 | +0.61 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Andy Rose | St. Paul Academy (MN) | 0.42 | 0.80 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Andreas Hoke | Mounds Park Academy | 0.61 | 0.81 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Wyatt Holst | Brainerd High School | -0.53 | -0.46 | 1–4 | 1.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Alyson Liu | Wayzata High School | -0.08 | -0.16 | 2–3 | 2.0 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Rafael Zarzosa | Wayzata High School | 0.54 | 0.46 | 2–3 | 2.0 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Jackson Holmes | Brainerd High School | -0.29 | -0.43 | 1–5 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Anika Liner | Mahtomedi | 0.33 | -0.08 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Alex Wicklund | Edina High School | -0.13 | -1.64 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.51 | 0.8 | 95% |
| Andrew Sabin | Orono High School | -0.31 | -3.31 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | Edina High School Hornets | 86% | |
| 1 | 2 | Southwest High School Lakers | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 98% | |
| 1 | 3 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Brainerd High School Mixed | 89% | |
| 1 | 4 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | 88% | |
| 1 | 5 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Wayzata High School Navy | 97% | |
| 1 | 6 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Edina High School Hornets | Brainerd High School Mixed | 76% | |
| 1 | 8 | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 82% | |
| 1 | 9 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 68% | |
| 1 | 10 | Southwest High School Lakers | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | 53% | |
| 1 | 11 | Wayzata High School Navy | Edina High School Hornets | 61% | |
| 1 | 12 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 96% | |
| 1 | 13 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Brainerd High School Mixed | 99% | |
| 1 | 14 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | 90% | |
| 1 | 15 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | Wayzata High School Navy | 79% | |
| 1 | 16 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | Southwest High School Lakers | 43% | upset |
| 1 | 17 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Edina High School Hornets | 74% | |
| 1 | 18 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 97% | |
| 1 | 19 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | 89% | |
| 1 | 20 | Southwest High School Lakers | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 21 | Wayzata High School Navy | Brainerd High School Mixed | 83% | |
| 1 | 22 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | 86% | |
| 1 | 23 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 95% | |
| 1 | 24 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 25 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | Brainerd High School Mixed | 95% | |
| 1 | 26 | Southwest High School Lakers | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | 89% | |
| 1 | 27 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Edina High School Hornets | 98% | |
| 1 | 28 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 98% | |
| 1 | 29 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Wayzata High School Navy | 63% | |
| 1 | 30 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | 47% | upset |
| 1 | 31 | Mounds Park Academy Mixed | Edina High School Hornets | 58% | |
| 1 | 32 | Southwest High School Lakers | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | 64% | |
| 1 | 33 | Brainerd High School Mixed | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 51% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Lakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hornets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Lakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Navy | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Lakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Navy | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Zephyrs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Lakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 1-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Lakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Skippers 1 | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 35 | |
Skippers 2 | def. | |
Zephyrs | ||
| 36 | |
Navy | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 37 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 38 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 39 | |
Skippers 1 | def. | |
Lakers | ||
| 40 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 41 | |
Navy | def. | |
Zephyrs | ||
| 42 | |
Skippers 2 | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 43 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Lakers | ||
| 44 | |
Skippers 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 45 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 46 | |
Zephyrs | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 47 | |
Skippers 2 | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 48 | |
Navy | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 49 | |
Skippers 1 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 50 | |
Zephyrs | def. | |
Hornets | ||
| 51 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Lakers | ||
| 52 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 53 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Navy | ||
| 54 | |
Skippers 2 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 55 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Hornets | ||
| 56 | |
Zephyrs | def. | |
Skippers 1 | ||
| 57 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Navy | ||
| 58 | |
Lakers | def. | |
Skippers 2 | ||
| 59 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 60 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 61 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Hornets | ||
| 62 | |
Lakers | def. | |
Navy | ||
| 63 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | ||
| 64 | |
Skippers 1 | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 65 | |
Zephyrs | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 66 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 67 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 2-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
