Wayzata High School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.79 (fleet -1.28) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 10–2 (83%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | — | 10–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 10–2 against 8.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | LMSS Team Race 2025 | crew | 1.30 | 2.28 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.97 | 0.7 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| LMSS Team Race 2025 | Crew | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS #3 @WBSS | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.0 | -1.69 |
| 2024 MN State Champs Silver | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | -0.50 |
| 2024 MN State Champs Red | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.3 | -1.67 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Art Johnson | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | -0.47 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MN Conference #3 | Crew | A, B | 12 | 8.8 | -0.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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