Minnetonka High School '30
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.46 (fleet 0.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.10 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–15 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 0–15 against 6.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 2026 LMSS Team Race | skipper | 0.47 | -2.53 | 0–3 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2025-05-10 | LMSS Team Race 2025 | skipper | 0.43 | -2.57 | 0–12 | 5.6 | ≤−3.00 | 10.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS #3 @WBSS | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.6 | 2.62 |
| 2026 LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 3 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| LMSS Team Race 2025 | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Sam Holland |  Blake School |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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