| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | 11–4 |
| 2 |  |
Mahtomedi | Mixed | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Trojans | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
St. Paul Academy (MN) | Spartans | 10–5 |
| 5 |  |
White Bear Lake High School | Mixed | 3–12 |
| 6 | |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,018 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.416 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.37: an orderly event, more orderly than 75% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wayzata High School Trojans | 2.74 | 3.43 | 10–5 | 8.4 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 27% |
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 3.17 | 3.81 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 5 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | 0.38 | 0.71 | 3–12 | 2.5 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 4 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans | 3.17 | 3.48 | 10–5 | 9.3 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 | Mahtomedi Mixed | 3.74 | 3.75 | 11–4 | 11.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 6 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 1.42 | -1.58 | 0–15 | 4.1 | ≤−3.00 | 6.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stella Demars | White Bear Lake High School | 0.50 | 1.75 | 3–3 | 1.9 | +1.25 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Stonewall Anderson | Wayzata High School | 0.95 | 1.64 | 10–5 | 8.4 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 27% |
| Alyson Liu | Wayzata High School | 0.24 | 0.88 | 8–4 | 6.9 | +0.64 | 0.4 | 35% |
| Evy Engebretson | Minnetonka High School | 1.49 | 2.12 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Max Barrett | Minnetonka High School | 0.91 | 1.55 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Maxwell Kelley | Minnetonka High School | 0.83 | 1.47 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Adi Narayan | St. Paul Academy (MN) | 0.75 | 1.06 | 10–5 | 9.3 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Owen Ostbye | Minnetonka High School | 0.98 | -2.02 | 0–15 | 4.1 | ≤−3.00 | 6.4 | >99% |
| Stella Christianson | White Bear Lake High School | -0.52 | -3.52 | 0–9 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Trojans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Trojans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Trojans | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Skippers 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Trojans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Skippers 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 37 | |
Trojans | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Trojans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | Evy Engebretson '24 Max Barrett '25 Maxwell Kelley '26 |
Amelia Sulciner '24 Gloria Jorczak '24 Bryce Lesinski '23 |
|
Mahtomedi | Mixed | Ella Wisely '23 Hank Seum '23 Robbie Dresen '25 |
Aliya Determan '26 Parker Ziegler '24 Elin Reigstad '25 |
|
Wayzata High School | Trojans | Alyson Liu '24 Dominik Moncur '25 Paige Kurtenbach '23 Stonewall Anderson '26 |
Harper Gordon '26 Mara Lysaght '24 William Carberry '26 |
|
St. Paul Academy (MN) | Spartans | Adi Narayan '27 Lorenzo Good '25 Wyatt Tait '23 |
Claire Schendel '26 Nick Ross '25 Evan Holmes '23 |
|
White Bear Lake High School | Mixed | Ethan Stabenow '24 Jack Colosi '25 Natalya Triplett '26 Stella Christianson '25 Stella Demars '25 |
Sofie Muschenheim '25 Kaitlyn Anderson '25 Nick Anderson '27 |
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | Owen Ostbye '28 Ray Taha '26 Reese Kottke '26 |
David Acheson '24 Anastasia Gilbert '26 Katya Cavanaugh '24 Parker Laing '24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
