| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Jones College Prep | Eagles | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | 8–4 |
| 5 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 5–7 |
| 6 |  |
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | 5–7 |
| 7 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 4–8 |
| 8 |  |
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | 4–8 |
| 9 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,148 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 54 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.356 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.32: an orderly event, more orderly than 69% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jones College Prep | 6.20 | 7.52 | 10–2 | 8.5 | +1.32 | 1.0 | 22% |
| 7 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.28 | 2.20 | 4–8 | 2.7 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 3 | New Trier HS | 4.29 | 5.15 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.86 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 1 | Lake Forest High School | 7.47 | 7.95 | 11–1 | 10.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Arrowhead High School | 4.96 | 5.29 | 8–4 | 7.5 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 6 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 4.17 | 3.77 | 5–7 | 5.7 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 8 | Birmingham Public Schools | 2.35 | 1.78 | 4–8 | 4.8 | −0.56 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 5 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 4.50 | 3.64 | 5–7 | 6.5 | −0.87 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 9 | Detroit Country Day School | 1.39 | -0.47 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.86 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cate Baldwin | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.20 | 2.12 | 4–8 | 2.7 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Jack Stenander | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | -0.01 | 0.91 | 4–8 | 2.7 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Gracie Kiergan | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 0.04 | 0.96 | 4–8 | 2.7 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia | New Trier HS | 1.67 | 2.53 | 6–6 | 4.8 | +0.86 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Mason Keane | Lake Forest High School | 2.21 | 2.69 | 11–1 | 10.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Nicholas Berkowitz | Arrowhead High School | 2.01 | 2.34 | 8–4 | 7.5 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Jack Colyer | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 1.57 | 1.16 | 5–7 | 5.7 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 79% |
| Arda Sarioglu | Birmingham Public Schools | 0.01 | -0.56 | 4–8 | 4.8 | −0.56 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Bobby Cooper | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.11 | 0.24 | 5–7 | 6.5 | −0.87 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Aarush Kapur | Detroit Country Day School | 0.55 | -1.31 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.86 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Andrew Wiand | Detroit Country Day School | 0.87 | -0.99 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.86 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Maroons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 2 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Trevian | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 7 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Maroons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Maroons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Scouts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 17 | |
Warhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Maroons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 21 | |
Trevian | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Warhawks | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Trevian | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 2-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Scouts | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Warhawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Warhawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 44 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Scouts | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Maroons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-6 |
| 53 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
