| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 5–1 |
| 3 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 3–3 |
| 4 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 2–4 |
| 7 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,107 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.487 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.25 ± 0.50: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 5.96 | 8.96 | 6–0 | 5.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| 4 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 1.44 | 3.06 | 3–3 | 1.6 | +1.62 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2 | Olympia High School Bears | 3.94 | 5.38 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.44 | 0.6 | 39% |
| 6 | Sehome High School Mariners | 1.19 | 2.00 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.82 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 3 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 2.92 | 2.78 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 5 | Capital High School Cougars | 2.07 | 1.75 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 7 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | 2.72 | -0.28 | 0–6 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Burbank | Central Kitsap High School | 0.19 | 1.81 | 3–3 | 1.6 | +1.62 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Alan Timms | Olympia High School | 1.70 | 3.14 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.44 | 0.6 | 39% |
| Simone Reck | Olympia High School | 1.40 | 2.85 | 5–1 | 4.2 | +1.44 | 0.6 | 39% |
| Bella Norwood | Sehome High School | 0.49 | 1.31 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.82 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Charlotte Cheng-Sun | Bainbridge High School | 1.01 | 0.87 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Daniel Chapman | Bainbridge High School | 1.12 | 0.97 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Adi Vannice | Capital High School | 0.62 | 0.30 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Siri Biswas | Capital High School | 0.75 | 0.42 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Alden Visser | Capital High School | 0.64 | 0.31 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Alex Bluth | Gig Harbor High School | 0.68 | -2.33 | 0–6 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Bailey Rainbolt | Gig Harbor High School | 1.24 | -1.76 | 0–6 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Tru Jackson | Gig Harbor High School | 0.83 | -2.17 | 0–6 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tides | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | Cyrus Yan '26 Nelson Dorsey '26 Stone Dewey '26 |
Emma Jackson '26 Beckett Ladenburg '27 Carson Domansky '26 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears | Alan Timms '26 Cameron Leclair '27 Simone Reck '27 |
Siena Kiehl '27 Cate Griffith '27 Ingrid Christensen '27 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 Daniel Chapman '27 Elijah Owen '28 |
Annika Veeraraghavan '29 Tatum Mcgee '28 Atlas Montgomery '27 |
|
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | Ian Anthony '27 Keller Matthews '26 Lucas Burbank '26 |
Gabby Warwick '28 Caleb Hu '30 Maya Zander '26 |
|
Capital High School | Cougars | Adi Vannice '28 Alden Visser '27 Siri Biswas '28 |
Andre Echeverri '28 Seher Kasmani '27 Clare Hopkins '28 |
|
Sehome High School | Mariners | Bella Norwood '26 Tristan Haines '26 Tyce Little '26 |
Fiona Runnels '28 Max Wilcox '27 Finn Scheyer '28 |
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Alex Bluth '29 Bailey Rainbolt '26 Tru Jackson '27 |
Aiden Spiker '28 Skylar Smith '29 Cameron Siegert '27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
