| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lynwood High School | Lynwood | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 6–4 |
| 6 |  |
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | 5–5 |
| 7 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 2–8 |
| 8 |  |
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA | Lincoln - Seattle W | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,792 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 40 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.485 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.50 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 78% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lynwood High School | 3.06 | 5.31 | 9–1 | 6.4 | +2.25 | 2.8 | 7% |
| 2 | Ingraham High School | 3.16 | 3.80 | 8–2 | 7.1 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 5 | Olympia High School | 1.91 | 2.30 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Bellingham High School | 1.72 | 1.68 | 5–5 | 5.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | Orcas High School | 1.78 | 1.73 | 4–6 | 4.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 3 | Roosevelt High School | 2.53 | 2.10 | 5–5 | 5.7 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 8 | Lincoln High School - Seattle WA | -0.12 | -0.87 | 1–9 | 1.7 | −0.76 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 7 | Capital High School | 1.43 | -0.34 | 2–8 | 4.5 | −1.77 | 2.4 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Budelman | Olympia High School | 0.61 | 1.00 | 6–4 | 5.3 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Avery O'Donnell | Bellingham High School | -0.34 | -0.38 | 5–5 | 5.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Soren O'Connell | Orcas High School | 0.47 | 0.42 | 4–6 | 4.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Nathan Koliha | Roosevelt High School | 0.50 | 0.22 | 3–3 | 3.3 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Ethan Lee | Roosevelt High School | 1.59 | 0.95 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.65 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Mazama Martin | Lincoln High School - Seattle WA | -0.50 | -1.25 | 1–9 | 1.7 | −0.76 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Beckett Slinger | Lincoln High School - Seattle WA | 0.42 | -0.34 | 1–9 | 1.7 | −0.76 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Roan Olson | Roosevelt High School | 1.21 | 0.42 | 3–4 | 3.9 | −0.79 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Siri Biswas | Capital High School | -0.00 | -1.77 | 2–8 | 4.5 | −1.77 | 2.4 | 99% |
| Adi Vannice | Capital High School | 0.54 | -1.23 | 2–8 | 4.5 | −1.77 | 2.4 | 99% |
| Alex Weed | Capital High School | 0.61 | -2.11 | 1–7 | 3.8 | −2.73 | 3.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bayhawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Lynwood | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Vikings | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 DNF |
| 19 | |
Lynwood | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 21 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Lynwood | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 RAF | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 2-5-6 DNS |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Lincoln - Seattle W | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
