South Regionals

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Franklin High School (OR) Franklin High School (OR) Quakers 7 7 14
2 Lakeridge High School (OR) Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge 5 12 17
3 Lincoln High School (OR) Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 16 5 21
4 Ida B. Wells (OR) Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans 11 22 33
5 Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR) 8 28 36
6 Grant High School (OR) Grant High School (OR) Grant (OR) 23 13 36
7 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 23 14 37
8 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 20 34 54
9 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 36 18 54
10 Peninsula High School Peninsula High School Seahawks 24 31 55
11 Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 29 30 59
12 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 35 29 64
13 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 39 30 69
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Lakeridge High School (OR) Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge 1 2 2 5 Braden Voelkel '26
Eleanor Crandall '25
Franklin High School (OR) Franklin High School (OR) Quakers 2 4 1 7 Adrian Carlson '25
Watson Laden '27
Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR) 3 1 4 8 Lucia Dausz '27
Luke Glavan '27
Ida B. Wells (OR) Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans 5 3 3 11 Alder Silkie '28
Fredric Sigfrids '15
Lincoln High School (OR) Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 4 6 6 16 Alexander Rytz '27
Alexandra Morley '27
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 6 7 7 20 Jadon Ireland '28
Maddox Gorum '25
Grant High School (OR) Grant High School (OR) Grant (OR) 9 5 9 23 Antalya Williamson '25
Neil Merims '26
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 10 8 5 23 Cameron Leclair '27
Simone Reck '27
Peninsula High School Peninsula High School Seahawks 7 9 8 24 Tristian Filyes '28
Cameron Ramirez '26
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 8 11 10 29 Siri Biswas '28
Clare Hopkins '28
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides OCS 10 11 35 Charlie Yando '28
Aiden Spiker '29
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 11 12 13 36 Andre Echeverri '28
Jack Kesler '28
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions OCS 13 12 39 Alex Cain '28
Ryan Wilkins '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Lincoln High School (OR) Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 1 1 3 5 Andrew Dolle '25
Clara Mechling '27
Franklin High School (OR) Franklin High School (OR) Quakers 2 3 2 7 Alex Tharp '26
Riley Read '17
Lakeridge High School (OR) Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge 4 4 4 12 Eleanor Crandall '25
Braden Voelkel '26
Grant High School (OR) Grant High School (OR) Grant (OR) 7 5 1 13 Neil Merims '26
Antalya Williamson '25
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 3 2 9 14 Brolin Boelts '26
Luke Hoppe '27
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 5 6 7 18 Wheeler Tran '28
Tai Taylor '28
Ida B. Wells (OR) Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans 8 9 5 22 Una Allen '26
Hanna Brush '17
Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR) 9 8 11 28 Luke Glavan '27
Lucia Dausz '27
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 10 13 6 29 Wesley Wysham '28
Nate Dietrich '26
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 12 10 8 30 Watson Laden '27
Adrian Carlson '25
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 13 7 10 30 Alden Visser '27
Ryan Parris '27
Peninsula High School Peninsula High School Seahawks 6 12 13 31 Martin Wagner '29
Elliot Dixon '27
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 11 11 12 34 Talus Book '27
Sophia Quinn '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions112
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars223
Franklin High School (OR)Franklin High School (OR) Quakers334
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides4491
Grant High School (OR)Grant High School (OR) Grant (OR)91916
Jesuit High School (OR)Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR)778
Lakeridge High School (OR)Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge889
Lincoln High School (OR)Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals9910
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1101011
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2111112
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 3121293
Peninsula High SchoolPeninsula High School Seahawks93931
Ida B. Wells (OR)Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans667

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions112
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars223
Franklin High School (OR)Franklin High School (OR) Quakers334
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides4491
Grant High School (OR)Grant High School (OR) Grant (OR)91916
Jesuit High School (OR)Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR)778
Lakeridge High School (OR)Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge889
Lincoln High School (OR)Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals9910
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1101011
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2111112
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 3121293
Peninsula High SchoolPeninsula High School Seahawks93931
Ida B. Wells (OR)Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans667

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 36%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 93°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.7 kn
avg  ·  max 17.3 kn
Gusts to 31.7 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity36% Pressure1010.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 17 kn · NW 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wilson/Lake Ridge/Lincoln OR: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.85 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wilson/Lake Ridge/Lincoln OR by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Wilson/Lake Ridge/Lincoln OR: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →