| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks 1 | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 9–1 |
| 3 |  |
Kingston High School | Kraken | 5–5 |
| 4 | |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks 2 | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Olympic High School (WA) | Trojans | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,491 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.516 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.07 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 | 2.58 | 4.32 | 9–1 | 7.2 | +1.74 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 4 | Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 | -0.03 | 1.71 | 5–5 | 2.2 | +1.74 | 3.0 | 4% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 2.89 | 4.27 | 9–1 | 7.7 | +1.38 | 0.9 | 27% |
| 3 | Kingston High School Kraken | 1.31 | 1.62 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 5 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 1.25 | -0.43 | 2–8 | 4.3 | −1.68 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 6 | Olympic High School (WA) Trojans | 1.07 | -1.93 | 0–10 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Campbell | Port Townsend High School | -0.34 | 1.40 | 5–5 | 2.2 | +1.74 | 3.0 | 4% |
| Alexander Turloff | Bainbridge High School | 1.56 | 2.78 | 7–1 | 5.9 | +1.22 | 0.7 | 34% |
| Beto Torres | Bainbridge High School | 0.41 | 1.61 | 7–1 | 6.0 | +1.20 | 0.6 | 35% |
| Victor Taylor | Kingston High School | 0.69 | 1.00 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Shelby Chandler | Kingston High School | 0.35 | 0.66 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Dylan Sprague | Kingston High School | 0.17 | 0.48 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Adam Turloff | Olympic High School (WA) | 1.25 | -1.75 | 0–10 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.3 | >99% |
| Amber Faragalli | Olympic High School (WA) | -0.29 | -3.29 | 0–10 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Kraken | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Redhawks 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Kraken | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Redhawks 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Kraken | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Kraken | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Kraken | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Redhawks 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Kraken | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Redhawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Redhawks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Kraken | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Redhawks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Kraken | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Kraken | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Redhawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Spartans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Kraken | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Redhawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks 1 | Lhotse Rowell '24 Ocean Smith '24 Zia Magill '24 |
Ava Butterfield '24 Panya Cao '24 Nadia Fisch '24 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Alexander Turloff '24 Beto Torres '24 Joseph Tappen '25 Owen Burnett '24 |
Suraj Siddaiah '26 Sharkey Mckay '24 Stella Saleh '26 Fin Vitale '25 |
|
Kingston High School | Kraken | Dylan Sprague '26 Shelby Chandler '25 Victor Taylor '23 |
Ryan Pavey '26 Lena Bowen '23 Acadia Tweed-Kent '25 |
|
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks 2 | Charlotte Capel '24 Kai Campbell '25 Luca Campbell '24 |
Sevryn Rust '24 Aidan Beil '25 Emilia Ramsey Ramsey '23 Akelya Behrenfeld '25 |
|
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | Elijah Dekker '26 Keller Matthews '26 Tanaya Justice '25 |
Maya Zander '26 Ian Anthony '27 Logan Duthie '25 |
|
Olympic High School (WA) | Trojans | Adam Turloff '24 Amber Faragalli '26 Elsa Bischoff '26 |
Alexia Cochran '26 Robin Jenkin '25 Avery Lawley '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
