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Bellingham Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 10 10
2 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 29 29
3 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 36 36
4 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 38 38
5 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 4 38 38
6 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 40 40
7 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 5 43 43
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 51 51
9 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 6 52 52
10 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 5 55 55
11 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 71 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 10 Bailey Logan '22
Tristan Neinaber '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 5 2 9 5 2 4 2 29 Mike Rogge '22
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 3 5 2 4 8 9 5 36 Ian Beatty '22
Mia Clarke '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 7 3 7 6 6 5 4 38 Talia Clarke '22
Tess Sivret '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 4 8 DNS 8 3 3 3 1 38 Willow Gray '24
Lulu Haestad '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 9 4 4 2 5 6 10 40 Alder Macgillivray '22
Aili Vanyo '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 5 4 6 3 10 7 7 6 43 Wyatt Mantha '22
Flora Booker '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 10 7 5 9 11 1 8 51
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 6 2 8 6 8 9 10 9 52 Rhone Claycamp '24
Liv Willert '24
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 5 6 9 10 11 4 8 7 55
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 11 10 11 7 10 11 11 71 Katy Woo '24
Nate Hettick '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 1535353535353
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 2191919191919
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 3505050505050
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 4141414141414
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 5545454545454
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 1151515151515
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 2515151515151
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 3565656565656
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 4181818181818
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 5101010101010
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 6161616161616

Conditions — 04/17/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 4.3 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1022.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bellingham: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellingham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bellingham, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →