Port Townsend Open

HostPort Townsend, NW Maritime Cntr
Date05/22/2022
TypePromotional
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	46	10	56
2	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 5	29	35	64
3	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	15	50	65
4	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 2	51	15	66
5	Kingston High School	Kraken 2	22	46	68
6	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	37	33	70
7	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	49	22	71
8	Kingston High School	Kraken 1	31	41	72
9	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 3	18	66	84
10	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 1	45	40	85
11	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 2	42	54	96
12	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 4	59	43	102
13	Port Angeles High School	Roughriders 2	49	55	104
14	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 6	51	55	106
15	Port Angeles High School	Roughriders 1	65	50	115
16	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 1	71	65	136

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	2	6	1	2	4	15	Ryan Downey '25 [1, 3, 5] Sabrina Anderson '24 [2, 4] Sabrina Anderson '24 [1, 3, 5] Ryan Downey '25 [2, 4]
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 3	7	1	4	1	5	18	Lhotse Rowell '24 Aidan Beil '25
Kingston High School	Kraken 2	3	5	3	8	3	22	Shelby Chandler '25 Lena Bowen '23
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 5	4	8	12	4	1	29	Nadia Fisch '24 [1-5] Willy Walden '24 [1-4] Ocean Smith '24 [5]
Kingston High School	Kraken 1	5	11	8	5	2	31	Victor Taylor '23 Charlie Svardh '25
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	6	12	6	3	10	37	Stone Dewey '26 Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 2	9	2	13	9	9	42	Tanaya Justice '25 [1-4] Preston Allen '23 [5] Cormac Burke '22 [1-4]
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 1	10	9	9	6	11	45	Noah Holly '24 Antonio Rioseco '23
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	1	10	5	14	16	46	Lauren Heinzelman '22 [1, 3, 5] Payton Mcphail '24 [2, 4] Payton Mcphail '24 [1, 3, 5] Lauren Heinzelman '22 [2, 4]
Port Angeles High School	Roughriders 2	8	3	14	16	8	49	Charlie Kasten '26 William White '26
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	15	13	2	13	6	49	Luke Hattrup '24 [1-2, 4] Adam Turloff '24 [3, 5] Adam Turloff '24 [1-2, 4] Luke Hattrup '24 [3, 5]
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 6	11	7	10	10	13	51	Viola Frank '22 Akeyla Behrenfeld '25
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 2	12	4	16	7	12	51	Claire Porter '25 Hazel Windstorm '24
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 4	16	14	11	11	7	59	Sophie Kunka '23 No Show
Port Angeles High School	Roughriders 1	13	15	7	15	15	65	Ozzy Minard '23 Elle Schulz '22
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 1	14	16	15	12	14	71	Victor Gehring '26 [1, 3] Preston Allen '23 [2] Keller Matthews '26 [4-5] Preston Allen '23 [1] Victor Gehring '26 [2, 4] Keller Matthews '26 [3] Tanaya Justice '25 [5]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	3	1	1	4	1	10	Carter Anderson '23 Talia Esarey '24
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 2	1	2	5	1	6	15	Willy Walden '24 Auden Darrock '24
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	2	11	2	5	2	22	Alexander Turloff '24 [1, 3-5] Nick Heinzelman '24 [2] Nick Heinzelman '24 [1, 3-5] Alexander Turloff '24 [2]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	5	4	9	12	3	33	Logan Magallon '23 Maura Bascom '24
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 5	6	3	6	15	5	35	Charlotte Capel '24 Sevryn Rust '24
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 1	4	14	4	9	9	40	Landon Pol '24 [1] Luca Campbell '24 [2-5] Luca Campbell '24 [1] Landon Pol '24 [2-5]
Kingston High School	Kraken 1	13	12	10	2	4	41	Leo Taylor '25 Reagan Johnson '23
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 4	11	5	11	6	10	43	Kai Campbell '25 [1-2] Fiona Skidmore '24 [3-5] Fiona Skidmore '24 [1-2] Kai Campbell '25 [3-5]
Kingston High School	Kraken 2	10	6	3	14	13	46	Dylan Sprague '26 Ryan Pavey '26
Port Angeles High School	Roughriders 1	7	7	12	8	16	50	Luna Hutchins '22 Jonathan Bridges '25
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	9	15	8	11	7	50	Beto Torres '24 [1, 3-5] Fin Vitale '25 [2] Fin Vitale '25 [1, 3-5] Beto Torres '24 [2]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 2	14	9	13	3	15	54	Annella Lyon '24 Kolin Stumpf '23
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 6	8	16	7	16	8	55	Ocean Smith '24 Tallulah Sebastian '25
Port Angeles High School	Roughriders 2	12	10	15	7	11	55	Elliot Dahlin '22 Layla Price '26
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 1	16	8	16	13	12	65	Elsa Bischoff '26 [1-3, 5] Maya Zander '26 [4] Maya Zander '26 [1-3, 5] Elsa Bischoff '26 [4]
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks 3	15	13	14	10	14	66	Ava Butterfield '24 [1, 3, 5] Panya Cao '24 [2, 4] Panya Cao '24 [1, 3, 5] Ava Butterfield '24 [2, 4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	31	31	31	31	31
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	32	32	32	32	32
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	33	33	33	33	33
Bainbridge High School Spartans 4	34	34	34	34	34
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1	126	126	126	126	126
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2	127	127	127	127	127
Kingston High School Kraken 1	119	119	119	119	119
Kingston High School Kraken 2	124	124	124	124	124
Port Angeles High School Roughriders 1	153	153	153	153	153
Port Angeles High School Roughriders 2	156	156	156	156	156
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1	61	61	61	61	61
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2	62	62	62	62	62
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 3	63	63	63	63	63
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 4	64	64	64	64	64
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 5	65	65	65	65	65
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 6	60	60	60	60	60

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	31	31	31	31	31
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	32	32	32	32	32
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	33	33	33	33	33
Bainbridge High School Spartans 4	34	34	34	34	34
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1	126	126	126	126	126
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2	127	127	127	127	127
Kingston High School Kraken 1	119	119	119	119	119
Kingston High School Kraken 2	124	124	124	124	124
Port Angeles High School Roughriders 1	153	153	153	153	153
Port Angeles High School Roughriders 2	156	156	156	156	156
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1	61	61	61	61	61
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2	62	62	62	62	62
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 3	63	63	63	63	63
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 4	64	64	64	64	64
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 5	65	65	65	65	65
Port Townsend High School Redhawks 6	60	60	60	60	60

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bainbridge High School	Lauren Heinzelman '22 [1, 3, 5] Payton Mcphail '24 [2, 4]	Payton Mcphail '24 [1, 3, 5] Lauren Heinzelman '22 [2, 4]
Spartans 1	Carter Anderson '23	Talia Esarey '24
Bainbridge High School	Ryan Downey '25 [1, 3, 5] Sabrina Anderson '24 [2, 4]	Sabrina Anderson '24 [1, 3, 5] Ryan Downey '25 [2, 4]
Spartans 2	Beto Torres '24 [1, 3-5] Fin Vitale '25 [2]	Fin Vitale '25 [1, 3-5] Beto Torres '24 [2]
Bainbridge High School	Luke Hattrup '24 [1-2, 4] Adam Turloff '24 [3, 5]	Adam Turloff '24 [1-2, 4] Luke Hattrup '24 [3, 5]
Spartans 3	Alexander Turloff '24 [1, 3-5] Nick Heinzelman '24 [2]	Nick Heinzelman '24 [1, 3-5] Alexander Turloff '24 [2]
Bainbridge High School	Stone Dewey '26	Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25
Spartans 4	Logan Magallon '23	Maura Bascom '24
Central Kitsap High School	Victor Gehring '26 [1, 3] Preston Allen '23 [2] Keller Matthews '26 [4-5]	Preston Allen '23 [1] Victor Gehring '26 [2, 4] Keller Matthews '26 [3] Tanaya Justice '25 [5]
Cougars 1	Elsa Bischoff '26 [1-3, 5] Maya Zander '26 [4]	Maya Zander '26 [1-3, 5] Elsa Bischoff '26 [4]
Central Kitsap High School	Tanaya Justice '25 [1-4] Preston Allen '23 [5]	Cormac Burke '22 [1-4]
Cougars 2	Annella Lyon '24	Kolin Stumpf '23
Kingston High School	Victor Taylor '23	Charlie Svardh '25
Kraken 1	Leo Taylor '25	Reagan Johnson '23
Kingston High School	Shelby Chandler '25	Lena Bowen '23
Kraken 2	Dylan Sprague '26	Ryan Pavey '26
Port Angeles High School	Ozzy Minard '23	Elle Schulz '22
Roughriders 1	Luna Hutchins '22	Jonathan Bridges '25
Port Angeles High School	Charlie Kasten '26	William White '26
Roughriders 2	Elliot Dahlin '22	Layla Price '26
Port Townsend High School	Noah Holly '24	Antonio Rioseco '23
Redhawks 1	Landon Pol '24 [1] Luca Campbell '24 [2-5]	Luca Campbell '24 [1] Landon Pol '24 [2-5]
Port Townsend High School	Claire Porter '25	Hazel Windstorm '24
Redhawks 2	Willy Walden '24	Auden Darrock '24
Port Townsend High School	Lhotse Rowell '24	Aidan Beil '25
Redhawks 3	Ava Butterfield '24 [1, 3, 5] Panya Cao '24 [2, 4]	Panya Cao '24 [1, 3, 5] Ava Butterfield '24 [2, 4]
Port Townsend High School	Sophie Kunka '23	No Show
Redhawks 4	Kai Campbell '25 [1-2] Fiona Skidmore '24 [3-5]	Fiona Skidmore '24 [1-2] Kai Campbell '25 [3-5]
Port Townsend High School	Nadia Fisch '24 [1-5]	Willy Walden '24 [1-4] Ocean Smith '24 [5]
Redhawks 5	Charlotte Capel '24	Sevryn Rust '24
Port Townsend High School	Viola Frank '22	Akeyla Behrenfeld '25
Redhawks 6	Ocean Smith '24	Tallulah Sebastian '25

Conditions — 05/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 15.9 kn

From NE (36°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Port Townsend, NW Maritime Cntr: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.42 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Port Townsend, NW Maritime Cntr by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Port Townsend, NW Maritime Cntr: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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