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NWISA Open Fleet Race Championships

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Communit 36 50 86
2 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 48 103 151
3 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 35 122 157
4 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Green 91 89 180
5 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Gold 114 80 194
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 164 49 213
7 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 146 89 235
8 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 140 102 242
9 Black Hills Black Hills Black Hills 113 129 242
10 Ballard High School Ballard High School Black 144 124 268
11 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 1 144 144 288
12 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 142 163 305
13 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 150 159 309
14 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 164 173 337
15 South Whidbey High School South Whidbey High School Falcons 90 271 361
16 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 161 201 362
17 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 2 190 177 367
18 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 218 GDQ 155 GDQ 373 GDQ
19 Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 167 214 381
20 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 247 136 383
21 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 199 198 397
22 Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Bruins 189 233 422
23 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 194 236 430
24 Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Trojans 250 203 453
25 Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Roughriders 286 185 471
26 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 256 226 482
27 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 262 245 507
28 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 233 277 510
29 Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Eagles 238 276 514
30 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 282 341 623
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 2 5 4 5 3 5 4 2 2 2 1 35
Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Communit 8 4 2 1 5 1 3 5 4 1 2 36 Francesca Dougherty '25
Esther Goodell '23
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 4 1 1 8 6 8 5 3 1 6 5 48 Tabor Houghtaling '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexander Turloff '24 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Alexander Turloff '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Tabor Houghtaling '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
South Whidbey High School South Whidbey High School Falcons 10 2 5 4 1 3 19 16 15 3 12 90 Colin Byler '24
Anna Servatius '24
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Green 1 15 8 3 4 18 1 9 12 12 8 91
Black Hills Black Hills Black Hills 27 11 3 12 7 9 6 8 6 11 13 113 Fiona Tang '25
Helena Pershall '26
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Gold 6 7 10 6 11 10 12 6 5 22 19 114 Hannah Shorr '26
Alan Brennan '25
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 9 8 7 15 8 20 9 28 21 4 11 140 Nathan Pease '25 [1-11]
Liam Petras '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Isadora Ford '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 17 3 9 13 24 15 7 10 8 20 16 142 Beto Torres '24
Cascade Kaseler '26
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 1 7 10 13 9 16 16 15 7 7 13 DSQ 144 Allison Lehmann '26
Amelia Burrus '24
Ballard High School Ballard High School Black 14 17 19 16 9 7 16 13 19 10 4 144 Hadley Carscaddon '26
Ella Reed '24
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 11 6 21 17 15 2 BKD 11 14 18 18 146 Liam Power '25
Kaden Kim '27
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 26 23 6 11 10 4 BKD BKD 18 9 15 150 Alyssa Leong '26
Cate Griffith '27
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 28 14 27 28 2 6 10 20 3 16 7 161 Charlotte Capel '24 [1-8]
Hazel Windstorm '24 [9-11]
Sevryn Rust '24 [1-8]
Aidan Beil '25 [9-11]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 18 18 14 20 17 12 20 18 11 7 9 164 Keller Matthews '26
Avery Lawley '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 22 9 20 7 25 17 17 14 10 17 6 164 Joseph Tappen '25
Suraj Siddaiah '26
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 3 27 15 26 13 13 8 1 13 25 23 167 Dawson Meyers '26
Tristan Haines '26
Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Bruins 23 16 18 23 12 26 11 19 17 21 3 189 Taylor Hanson '24
Leif Hauge '24
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 2 19 20 16 10 21 23 14 12 20 14 21 190 Kia Grignon '23 [1-11]
Cynthia Zimmerman '26 [1-8]
Sofia Dunton '23 [9-11]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 12 12 24 30 18 14 13 4 24 15 28 194 Bella Norwood '26
Max Day '26
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 15 24 11 19 19 11 23 26 16 8 27 199 Tru Jackson '27
Agatha Pape '26
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 21 26 17 14 23 21 2 29 23 5 17 218 GDQ Lola Walker '26 [1-10]
Robbie Key '27 [11]
Orlando Ljubic '27 [1-2, 5-6]
No Show [3-4, 7-11]
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 29 13 22 2 26 28 24 15 29 19 26 233 Amber Faragalli '26
Ian Anthony '27
Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Eagles 13 22 25 24 14 22 18 27 25 26 22 238 Lauren Mack '27
No Show
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 20 25 29 18 22 24 28 24 9 23 25 247 Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25
Nate North '24
Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Trojans 5 19 30 25 29 27 22 25 27 27 14 250 Tanaya Justice '25 [1-11]
Lucas Cornelius '25 [1-6, 11]
Cynthia Zimmerman '26 [7-10]
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 24 28 26 21 28 30 21 22 22 24 10 256 Luca Campbell '24
Akelya Behrenfeld '25
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 16 21 23 27 27 25 25 21 28 29 20 262 Noah Ellis '26
Tristan Nuanez '26
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 30 29 12 29 20 19 27 23 DNS DNS DNS 282
Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Roughriders 25 DNF 28 22 30 29 26 17 26 28 24 286 Fern Knobel '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jonathan Bridges '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Jonathan Bridges '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Fern Knobel '23 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 3 2 1 15 3 4 2 6 1 4 8 49 Owen Burnett '24
Sharkey Mckay '24
Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Communit 2 10 5 2 7 2 4 4 4 3 7 50 Max Hanson '25
Zev Fort '25
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Gold 17 11 13 3 9 18 1 1 2 2 3 80 Roan Olson '25
Calvin Hou '25
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 4 14 12 7 5 8 9 7 6 6 11 89 Liam Taylor '25
Caleigh Mingay '25
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Green 25 16 2 1 8 6 5 12 3 9 2 89
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 5 7 15 21 15 16 3 8 10 1 1 102 Henry Thomas '27
Arden Rathopf '23
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 10 1 4 14 10 5 19 2 7 18 13 103 Adam Turloff '24
Maura Bascom '24
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 12 22 7 8 2 7 21 9 11 13 10 122
Ballard High School Ballard High School Black 1 8 3 16 DSQ 9 24 5 5 8 14 124 Lydia Carscaddon '26
Eloise Herrera '27
Black Hills Black Hills Black Hills 6 15 9 17 17 12 8 11 9 10 15 129 Nolan O'Connell '26
Maddox Gorrum '25
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 9 9 16 26 11 14 15 10 13 7 6 136 Katy Woo '24
Tyce Little '26
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 1 11 25 11 5 6 21 6 13 18 12 16 144 Aeden Peterson '25
Michael Tabor '25
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 7 12 25 13 14 15 7 15 8 14 5 155 GDQ Emmett Beadnall '27 [1-11]
Theo Johnson '27 [1-2, 7-8]
No Show [3-6, 9-11]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 13 17 17 6 18 13 12 14 15 17 17 159 Simone Reck '27
Ramona Hanson '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 19 23 14 20 12 1 16 27 14 5 12 163 Stella Saleh '26
Nick Heinzelman '24
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 16 13 6 4 20 DNF 22 19 12 21 9 173 Elijah Dekker '26
Donevan Tucker '26
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 2 15 19 22 11 4 20 26 20 21 15 4 177 Cameron Furin '25
Hannah Mcreynolds '24
Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Roughriders 27 4 18 10 1 11 18 25 22 20 29 185 Andrew Nelson '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Charlie Kasten '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Charlie Kasten '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Andrew Nelson '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 8 21 20 9 21 19 11 23 20 22 24 198 Annalise Landy '27
Genie Greenfield '26
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 21 24 28 28 24 3 13 3 19 19 19 201 Panya Cao '24 [1-2, 8-11]
Kai Campbell '25 [3-7]
Lhotse Rowell '24 [1-4, 8-11]
Panya Cao '24 [5-7]
Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Trojans 23 18 8 18 23 22 14 22 16 16 23 203 Elsa Bischoff '26
Robin Jenkin '25
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 14 3 10 27 28 28 17 24 17 28 18 214 Oz Resnick '25
Hans Vondrell '26
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 22 20 21 22 22 24 20 17 25 11 22 226 Fiona Skidmore '24
Noah Holly '24
Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Bruins 18 6 24 12 26 23 10 29 28 29 28 233 No Show [1-6]
Dominic Schinning '25 [7, 9-11]
Cadence Smith '25 [8]
No Show [1-6]
Cadence Smith '25 [7, 9-11]
Dominic Schinning '25 [8]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 26 5 23 23 19 10 29 28 24 24 25 236 Hans Scheyer '24 [1-11]
Emma Moore '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Jonathon Martinez '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 28 27 19 25 13 17 25 18 27 26 20 245 Julian Becker '26
Hannah Ellis '24
South Whidbey High School South Whidbey High School Falcons 20 28 26 19 25 27 23 21 29 27 26 271 Grant Nienhuis '26 [1-11]
Cadence Smith '25 [1-6]
James Burke '24 [7-11]
Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Eagles 29 26 29 29 16 25 27 26 23 25 21 276 Jonah Goode-Barmann '25
Jaden Johnson '26
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 24 29 27 24 27 26 28 16 26 23 27 277 Logan Duthie '25
Maya Zander '26
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 341
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.240+0.24
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks 111511512612615615633558
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks 211611612712711447729
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 13535373745454747494955
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 23636444446464848545456
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 33737454547474949555562
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers1144772929363644
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Black3355883535373745
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions11111111611612712711447
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks5454565663638383111111116
Black HillsBlack Hills Black Hills8484115115126126156156335
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars12612615615633558835
Columbia High School - WAColumbia High School - WA Bruins48485454565663638383111
Hood River Valley High SchoolHood River Valley High School Eagles49495555626282828484115
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish4747494955556262828284
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats4444464648485454565663
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1828284841151151261261561563
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 28383111111116116127127114
Olympic High School (WA)Olympic High School (WA) Trojans127127114477292936
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings2929363644444646484854
Port Angeles High SchoolPort Angeles High School Roughriders156156335588353537
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 1626282828484115115126126156
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 2636383831111111161161271271
Puget Sound Community SchoolPuget Sound Community School Puget Sound Communit447729293636444446
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Gold4646484854545656636383
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Green88353537374545474749
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 1558835353737454547
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 277292936364444464648
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners5555626282828484115115126
South Whidbey High SchoolSouth Whidbey High School Falcons4545474749495555626282
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm565663638383111111116116127

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks 111611612712711447729
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks 212612615615633558835
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 13636444446464848545456
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 23737454547474949555562
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 34444464648485454565663
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers3355883535373745
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Black447729293636444446
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions11511512612615615633558
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks5555626282828484115115126
Black HillsBlack Hills Black Hills11111111611612712711447
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars127127114477292936
Columbia High School - WAColumbia High School - WA Bruins49495555626282828484115
Hood River Valley High SchoolHood River Valley High School Eagles5454565663638383111111116
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish48485454565663638383111
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats4545474749495555626282
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 18383111111116116127127114
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 28484115115126126156156335
Olympic High School (WA)Olympic High School (WA) Trojans156156335588353537
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings3535373745454747494955
Port Angeles High SchoolPort Angeles High School Roughriders1144772929363644
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 1636383831111111161161271271
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 2828284841151151261261561563
Puget Sound Community SchoolPuget Sound Community School Puget Sound Communit558835353737454547
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Gold4747494955556262828284
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Green2929363644444646484854
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 177292936364444464648
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 288353537374545474749
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners565663638383111111116116127
South Whidbey High SchoolSouth Whidbey High School Falcons4646484854545656636383
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm626282828484115115126126156
School / Team SkipperCrew
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Allison Lehmann '26 Amelia Burrus '24
Seahawks 1 Aeden Peterson '25 Michael Tabor '25
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Kia Grignon '23 [1-11] Cynthia Zimmerman '26 [1-8]
Sofia Dunton '23 [9-11]
Seahawks 2 Cameron Furin '25 Hannah Mcreynolds '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Tabor Houghtaling '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexander Turloff '24 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Alexander Turloff '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Tabor Houghtaling '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Spartans 1 Adam Turloff '24 Maura Bascom '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Joseph Tappen '25 Suraj Siddaiah '26
Spartans 2 Owen Burnett '24 Sharkey Mckay '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Beto Torres '24 Cascade Kaseler '26
Spartans 3 Stella Saleh '26 Nick Heinzelman '24
Ballard High School Ballard High School Nathan Pease '25 [1-11] Liam Petras '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Isadora Ford '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Beavers Henry Thomas '27 Arden Rathopf '23
Ballard High School Ballard High School Hadley Carscaddon '26 Ella Reed '24
Black Lydia Carscaddon '26 Eloise Herrera '27
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Tru Jackson '27 Agatha Pape '26
Lions Annalise Landy '27 Genie Greenfield '26
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bella Norwood '26 Max Day '26
Bayhawks Hans Scheyer '24 [1-11] Emma Moore '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Jonathon Martinez '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Black Hills Black Hills Fiona Tang '25 Helena Pershall '26
Black Hills Nolan O'Connell '26 Maddox Gorrum '25
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Keller Matthews '26 Avery Lawley '25
Cougars Elijah Dekker '26 Donevan Tucker '26
Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Taylor Hanson '24 Leif Hauge '24
Bruins No Show [1-6]
Dominic Schinning '25 [7, 9-11]
Cadence Smith '25 [8]		 No Show [1-6]
Cadence Smith '25 [7, 9-11]
Dominic Schinning '25 [8]
Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Lauren Mack '27 No Show
Eagles Jonah Goode-Barmann '25 Jaden Johnson '26
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Amber Faragalli '26 Ian Anthony '27
Dogfish Logan Duthie '25 Maya Zander '26
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Noah Ellis '26 Tristan Nuanez '26
Wildcats Julian Becker '26 Hannah Ellis '24
Olympia High School Olympia High School Liam Power '25 Kaden Kim '27
Bears 1 Liam Taylor '25 Caleigh Mingay '25
Olympia High School Olympia High School Alyssa Leong '26 Cate Griffith '27
Bears 2 Simone Reck '27 Ramona Hanson '25
Olympic High School (WA) Olympic High School (WA) Tanaya Justice '25 [1-11] Lucas Cornelius '25 [1-6, 11]
Cynthia Zimmerman '26 [7-10]
Trojans Elsa Bischoff '26 Robin Jenkin '25
Orcas High School Orcas High School Lola Walker '26 [1-10]
Robbie Key '27 [11]		 Orlando Ljubic '27 [1-2, 5-6]
No Show [3-4, 7-11]
Vikings Emmett Beadnall '27 [1-11] Theo Johnson '27 [1-2, 7-8]
No Show [3-6, 9-11]
Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Fern Knobel '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jonathan Bridges '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Jonathan Bridges '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Fern Knobel '23 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Roughriders Andrew Nelson '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Charlie Kasten '26 [3-4, 7-8]		 Charlie Kasten '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Andrew Nelson '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Luca Campbell '24 Akelya Behrenfeld '25
Redhawks 1 Fiona Skidmore '24 Noah Holly '24
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Charlotte Capel '24 [1-8]
Hazel Windstorm '24 [9-11]		 Sevryn Rust '24 [1-8]
Aidan Beil '25 [9-11]
Redhawks 2 Panya Cao '24 [1-2, 8-11]
Kai Campbell '25 [3-7]		 Lhotse Rowell '24 [1-4, 8-11]
Panya Cao '24 [5-7]
Puget Sound Community School Puget Sound Community School Francesca Dougherty '25 Esther Goodell '23
Puget Sound Communit Max Hanson '25 Zev Fort '25
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Hannah Shorr '26 Alan Brennan '25
Gold Roan Olson '25 Calvin Hou '25
Sehome High School Sehome High School Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25 Nate North '24
Mariners Katy Woo '24 Tyce Little '26
South Whidbey High School South Whidbey High School Colin Byler '24 Anna Servatius '24
Falcons Grant Nienhuis '26 [1-11] Cadence Smith '25 [1-6]
James Burke '24 [7-11]
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Dawson Meyers '26 Tristan Haines '26
Storm Oz Resnick '25 Hans Vondrell '26

Conditions — 05/13/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1023.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oak Harbor: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oak Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Oak Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →