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Burke Thomas Trophy - Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Christopher Stoll '19 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 4 21
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Conrad Miller '21 5 4 DNF 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 45
Ballard High School Ballard High School Erik Anderson '21 6 3 3 2 5 5 2 5 6 3 3 3 3 6 55
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Jack Knowles '20 3 7 4 9 3 3 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 8 68
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Casey Picket '20 1 2 2 6 4 11 9 6 3 6 7 7 7 2 73
Sehome High School Sehome High School Emma Powell '21 4 6 10 5 6 6 7 8 10 8 4 6 6 3 89
Sehome High School Sehome High School Natalie Serbousek '21 7 5 7 4 9 10 4 3 4 7 6 5 8 11 90
Olympia High School Olympia High School Sam Bonauto '21 10 9 6 8 7 9 12 7 9 5 9 8 5 7 111
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Julia Sherry '19 8 8 8 11 10 8 6 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 131
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Anna Sherry '19 9 10 5 7 8 7 10 11 8 11 13 9 12 13 133
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Tyler Nolasco '19 12 14 9 12 DNS 4 11 9 7 9 8 10 9 10 140
Ballard High School Ballard High School Catie Vandervort '22 14 11 12 14 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 11 5 165
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Claire Jablonski '19 13 12 13 10 11 13 8 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 172
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cormac Burke '22 11 13 11 13 13 DNS 14 14 13 12 11 14 14 14 183
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Annelisa Ayars '20 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 14 15 15 15 DNF DNF DNS 15 DNF 218

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  15 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Christopher Stoll '19Mercer Island High School14/141.504.99+3.4973rd → 99th26.5<1%1.5 / 6.6
2Conrad Miller '21Benson Polytechnic High School14/142.173.72+1.5685th → 99th7.213%3.2 / 5.3
3Erik Anderson '21Ballard High School Beavers 114/140.942.59+1.6456th → 93rd10.11%3.9 / 7.8
4Jack Knowles '20Bellingham High School14/140.762.13+1.3748th → 84th7.67%4.9 / 8.1
5Casey Picket '20Lincoln High School - Portland, OR14/141.571.80+0.2374th → 80th0.328%5.2 / 6.5
6Emma Powell '21Sehome High School Mariners 114/141.181.49+0.3264th → 72nd0.534%6.4 / 7.3
7Natalie Serbousek '21Sehome High School Mariners 214/140.881.45+0.5753rd → 71st1.626%6.4 / 7.9
8Sam Bonauto '21Olympia High School14/141.271.01−0.2666th → 58th0.465%7.9 / 7.2
9Julia Sherry '19North Kitsap High School Dogfish 214/140.700.60−0.1045th → 42nd0.169%9.4 / 8.4
10Anna Sherry '19North Kitsap High School Dogfish 114/140.850.41−0.4452nd → 34th1.176%9.5 / 8.0
11Tyler Nolasco '19Central Kitsap High School Cougars 114/140.700.36−0.3345th → 33rd0.678%10.0 / 8.4
12Catie Vandervort '22Ballard High School Beavers 214/140.56-0.54−1.1041st → 10th7.094%11.8 / 8.6
13Claire Jablonski '19Central Kitsap High School Cougars 214/14-0.08-0.69−0.6120th → 8th1.888%12.3 / 10.0
14Cormac Burke '22Central Kitsap High School Cougars 414/140.17-0.92−1.0926th → 5th5.998%13.1 / 9.4
15Annelisa Ayars '20Central Kitsap High School Cougars 314/14-0.32——15th → —11.2>99%15.6 / 10.5

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1008.9 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From SSW (195°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1008.9 hPa Rain0.13 in

What this breeze does at Lincoln OR — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lincoln OR in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lincoln OR by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lincoln OR: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →