Clear Falls High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 (fleet 4.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–16 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 12–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 20–16 against 20.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.41 | 1.91 | 6–8 | 7.0 | −0.50 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 SEISA Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.47 | 5.47 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.28 | 2.31 | 8–8 | 7.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| CofC Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.9 | 1.75 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 5.03 |
| ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Race Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 0.76 |
| 2019 SEISA Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 1.55 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Winter Fling Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.8 | 2.55 |
| Mallory Championship 2018 | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 1.57 |
| High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 3.3 | 3.01 |
| College of Charleston Intersectional | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.1 | 2.86 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Noah Zittrer |  College of Charleston |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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