| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | 2–4 |
| 3 |  |
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,160 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 9 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.322 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 1 | 6.74 school +0.17 | Dutch Byerly / Piotr Smieja 1.54 Noah Zittrer / Katie Mcgagh 2.47 Zane Rogers / Tyler Kemberling 2.47 3–0 Zane Rogers / Benjamin Dunphey 2.42 3–0 | 89% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | Lake Travis High School Cavaliers | 3 | 4.05 | Lucy Brock / Kate Hennig Julius Heitkoetter / William Cranney-Fee Nathan Gantala / Zachary Ronhaar | 29% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Clear Lake High School Falcons | 2 | 4.14 | Haru Masumoto / Dara Wang Michael Morse / Fiorella Midulla Yumi Yoshiyasu / Pilar Blanco Midulla | 32% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 6.74 | 9.74 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 2 | Lake Travis High School | 4.05 | 4.37 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 3 | Clear Lake High School | 4.14 | 2.82 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −1.33 | 0.7 | 93% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zane Rogers | Clear Falls High School | 2.47 | 5.47 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| Lucy Brock | Lake Travis High School | 1.60 | 1.92 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | Lake Travis High School | 1.55 | 1.86 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Nathan Gantala | Lake Travis High School | 0.65 | 0.96 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Haru Masumoto | Clear Lake High School | 1.13 | -0.19 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −1.33 | 0.7 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 OCS |
| 6 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Dutch Byerly '20 Noah Zittrer '21 Zane Rogers '20 |
Piotr Smieja '22 Katie Mcgagh '21 Tyler Kemberling '20 Benjamin Dunphey '22 |
|
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | Julius Heitkoetter '21 Lucy Brock '21 Nathan Gantala '22 |
William Cranney-Fee '22 Kate Hennig '21 Zachary Ronhaar '22 |
|
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | Haru Masumoto '22 Michael Morse '21 Yumi Yoshiyasu '20 |
Dara Wang '20 Fiorella Midulla '23 Pilar Blanco Midulla '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
