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Winter Fling Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 6 33 33
2 Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 37 37
3 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 42 42
4 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 54 54
5 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 56 56
6 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 59 59
7 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 1 80 80
8 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 2 88 88
9 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 5 104 104
10 Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 107 107
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 6 6 3 2 2 2 5 2 4 1 2 2 2 33 Noah Zittrer '21
Matthew Morrell '20
Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 1 4 7 6 1 2 1 2 4 3 3 3 37 Yumi Yoshiyasu '20
Michael Morse '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 2 1 4 1 7 1 4 3 6 4 8 1 42 Cade Morrell '21
Drake Tierney '18
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 7 2 3 5 4 6 10 5 2 1 4 5 54 Dutch Byerly '20
Nicholas Abate '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 5 5 10 10 3 4 3 1 5 5 1 4 56 Grace Bates '20
Tyler Kemberling '20
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 4 6 1 3 5 8 5 6 3 6 6 6 59 Alexander Hankins '18
Margaret Schuler '21
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 1 3 8 5 4 8 3 7 8 8 8 10 8 80 Miller Goldenberg '19
William Nance '18
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 2 8 9 8 9 6 7 8 7 7 7 5 7 88 Robert Argote '18
Harrison Menszer '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 5 10 7 6 8 10 10 6 10 9 10 9 9 104 Nicholas Dunphey '20
Brandon Dunegan '21
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 9 10 9 7 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 10 107 Nicholas Svec '20 [1-12]
Austin Davis '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Mason Thumann '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 11122337710101111
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 2223377101011111212
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 3337710101111121255
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 477101011111212551313
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 510101111121255131366
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 6111112125513136611
Clear Lake High SchoolClear Lake High School Falcons1212551313661122
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 155131366112233
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 213136611223377
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity66112233771010

Conditions — 02/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 25%  ·  Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From W (266°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity25% Pressure1025.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lakewood Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lakewood Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lakewood Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →