SEISA 2018 Fleet Champs

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 17 12 29
2 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 31 16 47
3 Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 26 28 54
4 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 38 26 64
5 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 32 48 80
6 Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 31 57 88
7 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 49 46 95
8 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 64 64 128
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 1 2 5 3 2 1 1 17 Zane Rogers '20
Dutch Byerly '20
Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 3 2 1 3 4 4 4 5 26 Yumi Yoshiyasu '20 [1-8]
Pilar Blanco Midulla '19 [1-7]
Shereine Sada '19 [8]
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 1 6 5 1 5 6 5 2 31 Lance Covington '20
Mason Thumann '20
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 7 3 4 1 7 2 3 31 Lucy Brock '21
Paige Fowler '21
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 3 4 6 2 1 3 7 32 Michael Burns '21 [1-6]
William Diaz '20 [7-8]
Thomas Duffy '21 [1]
Charles Breath '18 [2]
Joel Grumme '21 [3-8]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 5 5 6 2 6 3 7 4 38 Jonathan Schrantz '20
Joshua Keegan '20
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 7 4 7 7 7 5 6 6 49 Camille Mcgriff '18
Liam Bishop '19
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 64 Tylar Warren '18 [1-8]
Elsie Leblanc '20 [1, 3-6]
Cassidy O'Brien '21 [2]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 12 Asher Zittrer '19 [1-8]
Matthew Morrell '20 [1-6]
Katie Mcgagh '21 [7-8]
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 2 1 1 1 3 4 2 16 Julius Heitkoetter '21
Grace Vaughn '21
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 3 4 3 4 2 4 3 3 26 Emily Alfortish '21
Nicholas Combe '19
Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 4 3 6 3 4 2 2 4 28 Nicolas Martin '19 [1-8]
Gemma Dezillio '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Shereine Sada '19 [5-6]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 46 Parker Fench '21
Nathan Valentine '19
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 6 4 5 5 5 DNS DNS 48 Thomas Duffy '21 [1-2]
Charles Breath '18 [3-6]
Joshua Grumme '20 [7-8]
Joel Grumme '21 [1-2]
Frederick Cabell '19 [3-6]
Wallace St. Paul '21 [7-8]
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 7 7 5 7 8 8 6 DNS 57 Ian Lafavers '20 [1-8]
Austin Davis '20 [1-4]
Jonathon Tubbs '19 [5-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 8 8 8 8 7 7 DNS DNS 64 Delaney Ligori '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Riley Reech '20 [3-4]
Riley Reech '20 [1-2]
Corinne Martin '20 [3-4]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights11335577
Clear Lake High SchoolClear Lake High School Falcons22446688
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates33557711
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies44668822
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers55771133
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity66882244
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws77113355
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions88224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights22446688
Clear Lake High SchoolClear Lake High School Falcons33557711
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates44668822
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies55771133
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers66882244
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity77113355
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws88224466
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions11335577

Conditions — 04/14/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.7 kn
avg  ·  max 19.0 kn
Gusts to 33.2 kn
From NNW (329°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Clear Falls: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Clear Falls by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Clear Falls, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →