St. Thomas Aquinas High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–11 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 18–11 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 21–11 against 15.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.33 | 1.83 | 4–7 | 4.9 | −0.50 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-05-05 | SAISA District Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.89 | 4.42 | 14–4 | 7.4 | +2.53 | 9.0 | <1% |
| 2017-03-25 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.81 | 4.81 | 3–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
