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SP #7 JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 22 13 35
2 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 14 28 42
3 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 24 22 46
4 Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian 20 36 56
5 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 35 23 58
6 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 29 35 64
7 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 44 37 81
8 William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer 55 35 90
9 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 53 62 115
10 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 50 71 121
11 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 63 69 132
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 1 1 3 6 1 2 14 Delaney Brown '16
Rylee Macarthur '17
Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian 3 4 5 2 5 1 20 Chris Nagy '16
No Show
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 7 3 2 3 2 5 22 Celine De Araujo '18 [1-6]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [1-4]
Kat Cochran '18 [5-6]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 2 2 4 1 8 7 24 Tommy Kilcourse '16
Oliver Stabley '18
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 6 5 6 5 3 4 29 Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1-6]
Lily Schneider '19 [1-2]
Will Kuster '17 [3-4]
Ryan O'Neil '19 [5-6]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 8 8 1 8 4 6 35 Emily Bornarth '20 [1-6]
Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Tigges '19 [3-4]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 9 9 DNS 4 7 3 44 Jack Keel '16
Colin Figley '19
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 10 10 7 7 6 10 50 Mia Porter '17
Jack Parker '19
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 5 7 DNS DNS 9 8 53 Chase Sabadash '18 [1-2]
No Show [3-6]
No Show [1-2]
Ryan Vittimberga '17 [3-6]
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer 4 6 DNS 9 DNS DNS 55 No Show
Denver Rozzo '19
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 11 11 DNF 10 10 9 63 Noah Fischer '19 [1-6]
Audrey Hollo '19 [1-2]
Leah Schulman '18 [3-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 6 1 3 1 1 13 Julia Johansson '19 [1-6]
Mcleod Kennedy '19 [1-2]
Maddie Sharp '18 [3-6]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 3 5 6 4 2 2 22 Hunter Sorensen '17
Colin Brauchler '16
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 5 2 5 2 6 3 23 Emily Bornarth '20 [1-6]
Nathan Welmaker '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Emma Barska '19 [3-4]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 6 3 2 8 3 6 28 Alec Sullivan '17 [1-2]
Finn Kennedy '17 [3-4]
Derek Pearson '17 [5-6]
Jack Kaiser '19 [1-2]
Sean Kelly '18 [3-4]
Trevor Honeycutt '19 [5-6]
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer 2 1 7 1 DNS DNS 35 No Show
Denver Rozzo '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 8 4 8 7 4 4 35 Anika Boicheff '20 [1-6]
Zachery Ofenloch '19 [1-2]
Matthew Carlier '19 [3-4]
Caroline Weintraub '20 [5-6]
Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian 4 DNF 3 5 7 5 36 No Show
No Show
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 7 8 4 6 5 7 37 Sean Toro '19 [1-6]
James Nichols '18 [1-4]
Alex Mccree '18 [5-6]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 9 7 DNS 10 DNS DNS 62 No Show [1-2]
Vinny Cabrera '19 [3-6]
No Show [1-2]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity DNF DNF DNS 9 DNF DNF 69 Joshua Berger '17
Michael Gabe '18
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity DNS DNS DNS 11 DNS DNS 71 Mia Porter '17
Jack Parker '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity323232323232
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons252525252525
Orangewood Christian SchoolOrangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian353535353535
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves292929292929
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity333333333333
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers282828282828
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders303030303030
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders343434343434
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers313131313131
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS262626262626
William T. Dwyer High SchoolWilliam T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer272727272727

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity323232323232
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons252525252525
Orangewood Christian SchoolOrangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian353535353535
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves292929292929
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity333333333333
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers282828282828
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders303030303030
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders343434343434
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers313131313131
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS262626262626
William T. Dwyer High SchoolWilliam T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer272727272727
School / Team SkipperCrew
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Mia Porter '17 Jack Parker '19
Varsity Mia Porter '17 Jack Parker '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Jack Keel '16 Colin Figley '19
Panthers Sean Toro '19 [1-6] James Nichols '18 [1-4]
Alex Mccree '18 [5-6]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Tommy Kilcourse '16 Oliver Stabley '18
Falcons Hunter Sorensen '17 Colin Brauchler '16
Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Chris Nagy '16 No Show
Orangewood Christian No Show No Show
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Delaney Brown '16 Rylee Macarthur '17
ThunderWolves Alec Sullivan '17 [1-2]
Finn Kennedy '17 [3-4]
Derek Pearson '17 [5-6]		 Jack Kaiser '19 [1-2]
Sean Kelly '18 [3-4]
Trevor Honeycutt '19 [5-6]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Noah Fischer '19 [1-6] Audrey Hollo '19 [1-2]
Leah Schulman '18 [3-6]
Varsity Joshua Berger '17 Michael Gabe '18
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Celine De Araujo '18 [1-6] Gabi Restrepo '16 [1-4]
Kat Cochran '18 [5-6]
Raiders Julia Johansson '19 [1-6] Mcleod Kennedy '19 [1-2]
Maddie Sharp '18 [3-6]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1-6] Lily Schneider '19 [1-2]
Will Kuster '17 [3-4]
Ryan O'Neil '19 [5-6]
Chargers Anika Boicheff '20 [1-6] Zachery Ofenloch '19 [1-2]
Matthew Carlier '19 [3-4]
Caroline Weintraub '20 [5-6]
South Fork High School South Fork High School Emily Bornarth '20 [1-6] Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Tigges '19 [3-4]
SF BULLDOGS Emily Bornarth '20 [1-6] Nathan Welmaker '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Emma Barska '19 [3-4]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Chase Sabadash '18 [1-2]
No Show [3-6]		 No Show [1-2]
Ryan Vittimberga '17 [3-6]
Raiders No Show [1-2]
Vinny Cabrera '19 [3-6]		 No Show [1-2]
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School No Show Denver Rozzo '19
William T. Dwyer No Show Denver Rozzo '19

Conditions — 02/27/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From N (350°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →