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SAISA South Points 2 2017

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 14 14 28
2 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 42 10 52
3 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 25 43 68
4 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 45 28 73
5 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 25 49 74
6 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 41 43 84
7 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 58 38 96
8 Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 52 57 109
9 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 58 52 110
10 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 42 85 127
11 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 49 78 127
12 Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Varsity 60 74 134
13 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 79 58 137
14 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 70 82 152
15 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 80 77 157
16 Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Varsity 95 67 162
17 Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 89 76 165
18 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 120 120 240
19 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 120 120 240
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1 2 1 1 3 6 14 Connor Nelson '19
Tee Chulikavit '19
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 3 7 3 2 5 5 25 Alex Gonzalez '20
Laurel Tyson '21
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4 8 7 3 2 1 25 Javier Garcon '21
Leo Menninger '18
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 9 5 5 8 10 4 41 Elizabeth Shanahan '19
Karlei Kongsiri '19
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 5 9 13 6 7 2 42 Kyle Bramson '20 [1-4]
Clay Snyder '18 [5-6]
Roberto Lugones '20 [1-4]
Karen Liberman '20 [5-6]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 10 6 6 12 1 7 42 Olivia De Olazarra '18
Natalia Gagliano '19
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2 12 4 4 OCS 3 45 Conner Correll '18
Sam Juskiewicz '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 17 4 2 5 11 10 49 Emily Bornarth '20
Emma Elliott '21
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 8 11 8 7 9 9 52 Callista Hopkins '19
Alex Pearson '18
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 6 3 10 11 12 16 58 Kingsley Ehrich '19
Jaxson Stehlin '20
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 7 10 12 15 6 8 58 Matthew King '20
Anna Millbourn '18
Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Varsity 14 1 9 DNS 4 12 60 Ethan Hanley '19
Olivia Hanley '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 13 14 15 9 8 11 70 Trevor Honeycutt '19 [1-6]
Quinn Mckenna '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ayla Weisberg '22 [3-4]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 12 16 11 14 13 13 79 Chandler Scott '19
Oliver Stabley '18
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 11 15 14 10 16 14 80 Jack Parker '19
Aine Porter '19
Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 16 13 16 13 14 17 89 Katie Nelson '20
Jonathan Joyner '19
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Varsity 15 17 17 16 15 15 95 Kaili Yap '19
Abigail Clinger '19
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 No Show
No Show
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 1 1 1 2 2 3 10 Daniel Hughes '21
Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2 2 2 3 3 2 14 Brandon Geller '19
Dominic Canonico '19
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 5 9 6 6 1 1 28 Chase Sabadash '18 [1-6]
Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 [1-2]
Libby Redmond '20 [3-6]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 11 3 4 4 8 8 38 Will Murray '20
Andrew Florio '20
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 13 8 9 1 7 5 43 Ella Marsden '20
Ethan Osborne '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 14 6 3 10 6 4 43 Heather Kerns '20 [1-6]
Anika Boicheff '20 [1-4]
Zachery Ofenloch '19 [5-6]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3 10 12 5 13 6 49 Adam Kaplan '21
Michael Macrae '19
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 7 11 7 11 9 7 52 Jack Macdonald '18
Kara Percival '18
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 4 17 5 12 10 9 57 Robert Hopkins '21
Talib Moran '20
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 8 4 8 13 14 11 58 Caroline Locke '21
Cole Degner '21
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Varsity 6 7 DNS 17 4 13 67 Mckenna Wherry '20
Alexa Dossantos '19
Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Varsity 9 5 11 9 DNS DNS 74 Sam Meyer '19 [1-2]
Eric Vangennip '20 [3-4]
Anthony Gosner '18 [5-6]
Evan Occhino '20 [1-4]
Aaron Williams '20 [5-6]
Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 15 16 14 7 12 12 76 Meg Courtney '21
Claire Shames '21
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 12 12 10 8 15 OCS 77 Jacob Armitage '20
Lauren Sokolowski '18
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 17 15 15 16 5 10 78 Emma Barska '19
Katelyn Herter '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 10 13 13 15 16 15 82 Luke Weisberg '19 [1-4]
Alexander Barr '19 [5-6]
Arden Capizola '18 [1-2]
Raquel Shulman '22 [3-4]
Liz Cloninger '22 [5-6]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 16 14 16 14 11 14 85 Jonathan Gleason '22 [1-6]
Luciana Solorzano '20 [1-2]
Christian Martinez '19 [3-6]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 No Show
No Show
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bishop Verot High SchoolBishop Verot High School Varsity1414161699
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes88121233
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity1616991818
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders12123355
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons335511
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School Varsity1818661111
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers6611111515
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers55111717
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves11171722
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers111115151313
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers99181866
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders17172244
Robinson High SchoolRobinson High School Knights151513131010
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1010191988
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors224477
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers131310101919
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS44771414
Venice High School (FL)Venice High School (FL) Varsity7714141616
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors1919881212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bishop Verot High SchoolBishop Verot High School Varsity88121233
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes1616991818
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity12123355
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders99181866
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons1818661111
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School Varsity55111717
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers11171722
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers6611111515
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves111115151313
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers17172244
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers335511
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders151513131010
Robinson High SchoolRobinson High School Knights224477
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders7714141616
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors131310101919
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers44771414
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS1010191988
Venice High School (FL)Venice High School (FL) Varsity1919881212
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors1414161699
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Kaili Yap '19 Abigail Clinger '19
Varsity Mckenna Wherry '20 Alexa Dossantos '19
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Alex Gonzalez '20 Laurel Tyson '21
Hurricanes Ella Marsden '20 Ethan Osborne '19
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Jack Parker '19 Aine Porter '19
Varsity Jacob Armitage '20 Lauren Sokolowski '18
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Kyle Bramson '20 [1-4]
Clay Snyder '18 [5-6]		 Roberto Lugones '20 [1-4]
Karen Liberman '20 [5-6]
Raiders Daniel Hughes '21 Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 Tee Chulikavit '19
Panthers Brandon Geller '19 Dominic Canonico '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Chandler Scott '19 Oliver Stabley '18
Falcons Caroline Locke '21 Cole Degner '21
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Callista Hopkins '19 Alex Pearson '18
Varsity Robert Hopkins '21 Talib Moran '20
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School No Show No Show
Panthers No Show No Show
Martin County High School Martin County High School Kingsley Ehrich '19 Jaxson Stehlin '20
Tigers Jack Macdonald '18 Kara Percival '18
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Trevor Honeycutt '19 [1-6] Quinn Mckenna '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ayla Weisberg '22 [3-4]
ThunderWolves Luke Weisberg '19 [1-4]
Alexander Barr '19 [5-6]		 Arden Capizola '18 [1-2]
Raquel Shulman '22 [3-4]
Liz Cloninger '22 [5-6]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School No Show No Show
Panthers No Show No Show
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Javier Garcon '21 Leo Menninger '18
Raiders Adam Kaplan '21 Michael Macrae '19
Robinson High School Robinson High School Katie Nelson '20 Jonathan Joyner '19
Knights Meg Courtney '21 Claire Shames '21
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 Anna Millbourn '18
Sailors Will Murray '20 Andrew Florio '20
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 Karlei Kongsiri '19
Chargers Heather Kerns '20 [1-6] Anika Boicheff '20 [1-4]
Zachery Ofenloch '19 [5-6]
South Fork High School South Fork High School Emily Bornarth '20 Emma Elliott '21
SF BULLDOGS Emma Barska '19 Katelyn Herter '20
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 Sam Juskiewicz '20
Raiders Chase Sabadash '18 [1-6] Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 [1-2]
Libby Redmond '20 [3-6]
Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Ethan Hanley '19 Olivia Hanley '20
Varsity Sam Meyer '19 [1-2]
Eric Vangennip '20 [3-4]
Anthony Gosner '18 [5-6]		 Evan Occhino '20 [1-4]
Aaron Williams '20 [5-6]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Olivia De Olazarra '18 Natalia Gagliano '19
Warriors Jonathan Gleason '22 [1-6] Luciana Solorzano '20 [1-2]
Christian Martinez '19 [3-6]

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From ESE (118°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1010.0 hPa Rain0.80 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Saint Thomas Aquinas: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas Aquinas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saint Thomas Aquinas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →