Gulliver Preparatory School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.03 (fleet 3.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–30 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 10–8 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 5–13 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 20–30 against 24.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | SAISA District Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.15 | 2.43 | 10–8 | 9.2 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 2017-03-25 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.43 | 1.08 | 5–13 | 8.1 | −1.36 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2016-04-30 | SAISA District Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.17 | 1.07 | 5–9 | 7.3 | −1.10 | 1.4 | 96% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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