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South Points #3 - 2015 (Varsity)

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 25 24 49
2 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 42 23 65
3 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 44 42 86
4 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 38 56 94
5 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 46 69 115
6 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 80 46 126
7 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 87 44 131
8 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 58 76 134
9 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 54 98 152
10 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 83 94 177
11 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 70 109 179
12 Coral Gables Senior High Coral Gables Senior High Varsity 113 80 193
13 Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Varsity 102 95 197
14 Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 96 105 201
15 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 121 81 202
16 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 97 112 209
17 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 103 120 223
18 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 129 105 234
19 Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Varsity 145 147 292
20 Admiral Farragut Academy Admiral Farragut Academy Varsity 151 158 309
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 3 1 1 1 6 2 4 7 25 Louisa Nordstrom '16
Garrett Lawlor '16
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 7 8 3 2 8 1 5 4 38 Ian Macdiarmid '17
Sammi Spritz '16
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2 3 14 8 1 6 2 6 42 Josh Dochoda '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Kyle Dochoda '17 [3-4]
Kyle Dochoda '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Josh Dochoda '16 [3-4]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 10 2 5 4 7 3 10 3 44 Jack Johansson '17
Benito Guido '16
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 5 10 4 6 14 5 1 1 46 Alie (Alexandra) Toppa '16 [1-8]
Liza (Elizabeth) Toppa '16 [1-4]
Brian Buckley '17 [5-8]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 6 5 2 10 3 9 11 8 54 Sam Baker '17
Ethan Osborne '19
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 1 13 7 3 9 12 3 10 58 Trevor Bornarth '18
Nick Ochalek '17
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 8 6 13 7 10 17 7 2 70 Joshua Temko '17
Juliana Cromie '16
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 14 4 6 11 17 14 9 5 80 Shawn Harvey '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Paul Lobree '18 [5-6]
Delilah Lubarsky '17 [1-2]
Adrianne Han '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Alex Sidi '17 [5-6]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 4 7 8 19 5 15 8 17 83 Zachary Boogaart '16
Morgan Matthews '16
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 11 12 16 9 12 4 14 9 87 Connor Nelson '19
Erica Brown '17
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 12 17 11 15 4 19 6 12 96 Daniel Denison '17
Kurban Ali '17
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 13 14 10 16 11 7 12 14 97 Chris Kiener '17
Jack Macdonald '18
Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Varsity 9 15 12 12 15 10 16 13 102 Matthew Magardino '17
Harrison Rogers '19
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 17 11 9 13 13 11 18 11 103 Mikaela Munao '18
Adriana Munao '16
Coral Gables Senior High Coral Gables Senior High Varsity 18 16 18 5 2 18 15 DNF 113 Grace Howie '16
Sofia Bratt '16
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 15 9 19 14 20 16 13 15 121 Shane Riera '17
Natalia Gagliano '19
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 20 19 15 18 16 8 17 16 129 Ethan Grove '17
Caroline Shrock '18
Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Varsity 19 18 20 20 18 13 19 18 145 Jocelyn Lyon '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Madelyn Lyon '16 [3-4]
Abby Worthington '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Ursula Banos '18 [5-6]
Admiral Farragut Academy Admiral Farragut Academy Varsity 16 20 17 17 19 20 DNS DNS 151 Stephanie Bailey '18
Veronica Levine '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 7 3 1 2 4 1 1 4 23 Hannah Steadman '16
Andreea Ranney-Pace '16
Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 1 1 4 1 1 2 7 7 24 Hallie Schiffman '18
Zack Jordan '16
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 5 2 2 3 3 3 3 DSQ 42 Clay Snyder '18
Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 6 4 8 9 2 4 9 2 44 Charlie Curtis '17
Dominic Canonico '19
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 7 6 5 10 11 2 3 46 Tucker Weed '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Celine De Araujo '18 [5-6]
Vera Mariani '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [5-6]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 3 5 5 16 14 7 5 1 56 Severin Gramm '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Cameron Grubb '16 [5-6]
Delaney Brown '16 [1-4, 7-8]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 8 6 11 10 9 10 10 5 69 Anna Weis '16
Dae Kelly '17
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 10 13 3 7 13 6 15 9 76 Kathryn Bornarth '17
Emma Barska '19
Coral Gables Senior High Coral Gables Senior High Varsity 4 15 14 4 7 15 13 8 80 Holden Payne '17 [1-8]
Virgil Alfred '18 [1-2]
Mark Braun '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Edmund Aramayo '16 [5-6]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 16 10 9 6 5 12 8 15 81 Olivia De Olazarra '18 [1-8]
Parker Brannon '16 [1-2]
Lanier Williams '18 [3-8]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 11 12 10 13 12 13 12 11 94 Caden Kuchura '16 [1-4]
Max Karpanty '17 [5-8]
Noah Hascup '16 [1-4]
Chris Haner '17 [5-8]
Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Varsity 15 18 12 17 6 5 16 6 95 Hunter Puzak '18
Kristina Puzak '18
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 14 14 7 8 18 18 6 13 98 Brianna Wilson '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Ryan Guth '18 [5-6]
Nicole Sikoryak '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Tyler Munchmeyer '19 [5-6]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 13 11 18 15 11 14 11 12 105 Ariel Casaretto '17 [1-8]
Jack Bilello '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Julian Billini '17 [3-4]
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity DSQ 8 13 12 OCS 16 4 10 105 Nevin Avila '16
Michael Malkiewicz '16
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 12 16 16 19 8 8 14 16 109 Mia Porter '17
Aine Porter '19
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 9 9 17 14 15 17 17 14 112 Kingsley Ehrich '19 [1-8]
Nick Block '17 [1-6]
Kara Percival '18 [7-8]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 17 17 15 11 16 9 18 17 120 Cameron Kuchar '17
Alissa Stachelek '18
Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Varsity 18 19 19 18 17 19 19 18 147 Jakob Germann '17
Audrey Wood '19
Admiral Farragut Academy Admiral Farragut Academy Varsity 19 20 20 20 19 20 DNS 19 158 Cameron Pesola '16
Bo Bartee '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Admiral Farragut AcademyAdmiral Farragut Academy Varsity1616171718181919
Community School of NaplesCommunity School of Naples Varsity8899111010
Coral Gables Senior HighCoral Gables Senior High Varsity1515161617171818
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes2220203344
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity18181919222020
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders1111121213131414
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons55667788
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School Varsity191922202033
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers66778899
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers77889911
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves1414151516161717
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity991110101111
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pine View Varsity33445566
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers1313141415151616
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders17171818191922
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1010111112121313
Seacrest Country Day SchoolSeacrest Country Day School Varsity44556677
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers1212131314141515
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS11101011111212
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors2020334455

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Admiral Farragut AcademyAdmiral Farragut Academy Varsity66778899
Community School of NaplesCommunity School of Naples Varsity1818191911112020
Coral Gables Senior HighCoral Gables Senior High Varsity55667788
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes1212101013131414
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity889912121010
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders11223344
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons1515161617171818
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School Varsity99121210101313
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers1616171718181919
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers1717181819191111
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves44556677
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity19191111202011
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pine View Varsity1313141415151616
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers33445566
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders7788991212
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders2020112233
Seacrest Country Day SchoolSeacrest Country Day School Varsity1414151516161717
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers22334455
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS111120201122
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors1010131314141515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Admiral Farragut Academy Admiral Farragut Academy Stephanie Bailey '18 Veronica Levine '17
Varsity Cameron Pesola '16 Bo Bartee '17
Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Matthew Magardino '17 Harrison Rogers '19
Varsity Hunter Puzak '18 Kristina Puzak '18
Coral Gables Senior High Coral Gables Senior High Grace Howie '16 Sofia Bratt '16
Varsity Holden Payne '17 [1-8] Virgil Alfred '18 [1-2]
Mark Braun '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Edmund Aramayo '16 [5-6]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Sam Baker '17 Ethan Osborne '19
Hurricanes Brianna Wilson '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Ryan Guth '18 [5-6]		 Nicole Sikoryak '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Tyler Munchmeyer '19 [5-6]
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Joshua Temko '17 Juliana Cromie '16
Varsity Mia Porter '17 Aine Porter '19
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Jack Johansson '17 Benito Guido '16
Raiders Clay Snyder '18 Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 Erica Brown '17
Panthers Charlie Curtis '17 Dominic Canonico '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Zachary Boogaart '16 Morgan Matthews '16
Falcons Caden Kuchura '16 [1-4]
Max Karpanty '17 [5-8]		 Noah Hascup '16 [1-4]
Chris Haner '17 [5-8]
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Daniel Denison '17 Kurban Ali '17
Varsity Nevin Avila '16 Michael Malkiewicz '16
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Mikaela Munao '18 Adriana Munao '16
Panthers Cameron Kuchar '17 Alissa Stachelek '18
Martin County High School Martin County High School Chris Kiener '17 Jack Macdonald '18
Tigers Kingsley Ehrich '19 [1-8] Nick Block '17 [1-6]
Kara Percival '18 [7-8]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Ian Macdiarmid '17 Sammi Spritz '16
ThunderWolves Severin Gramm '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Cameron Grubb '16 [5-6]		 Delaney Brown '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Ethan Grove '17 Caroline Shrock '18
Varsity Ariel Casaretto '17 [1-8] Jack Bilello '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Julian Billini '17 [3-4]
Pine View School Pine View School Louisa Nordstrom '16 Garrett Lawlor '16
Pine View Varsity Hallie Schiffman '18 Zack Jordan '16
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Shawn Harvey '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Paul Lobree '18 [5-6]		 Delilah Lubarsky '17 [1-2]
Adrianne Han '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Alex Sidi '17 [5-6]
Raiders Tucker Weed '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Celine De Araujo '18 [5-6]		 Vera Mariani '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [5-6]
Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Jocelyn Lyon '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Madelyn Lyon '16 [3-4]		 Abby Worthington '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Ursula Banos '18 [5-6]
Varsity Jakob Germann '17 Audrey Wood '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Josh Dochoda '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Kyle Dochoda '17 [3-4]		 Kyle Dochoda '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Josh Dochoda '16 [3-4]
Chargers Hannah Steadman '16 Andreea Ranney-Pace '16
South Fork High School South Fork High School Trevor Bornarth '18 Nick Ochalek '17
SF BULLDOGS Kathryn Bornarth '17 Emma Barska '19
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Alie (Alexandra) Toppa '16 [1-8] Liza (Elizabeth) Toppa '16 [1-4]
Brian Buckley '17 [5-8]
Raiders Anna Weis '16 Dae Kelly '17
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Shane Riera '17 Natalia Gagliano '19
Warriors Olivia De Olazarra '18 [1-8] Parker Brannon '16 [1-2]
Lanier Williams '18 [3-8]

Conditions — 10/31/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From E (83°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Saint Thomas Aquinas: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas Aquinas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saint Thomas Aquinas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →