St. Thomas Aquinas High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 (fleet 3.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–16 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 17–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 18–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 24–12 against 21.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.56 | 2.29 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2016-04-30 | SAISA District Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.69 | 3.26 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.50 | 3.29 | 7–4 | 5.4 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #7 | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 0.95 |
| SAISA District Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #3 - 2015 (Varsity) | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 2.31 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| SAISA SP-6 JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 0.26 |
| SAISA District Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.6 | 2.84 |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.3 | 1.93 |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 2.85 |
| SAISA South Points #1 | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 2.01 |
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 3.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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