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South Points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 25 13 38
2 Pine View School Pine View School Pythons 28 18 46
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 31 32 63
4 Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 29 45 74
5 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Varsity 38 46 84
6 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 28 63 91
7 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 62 57 119
8 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves 65 54 119
9 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 98 27 125
10 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 72 82 154
11 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 49 111 160
12 Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 81 80 161
13 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 87 77 164
14 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Varsity 79 92 171
15 Naples High School Naples High School Varsity 105 82 187
16 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 92 103 195
17 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Varsity 108 100 208
18 Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 123 116 239
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4 2 7 1 5 3 3 25 Patrick Shanahan '15
Peninah Benjamin '16
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 3 9 1 3 6 4 2 28 Nico Schultz '16 [1-7]
Jasmine Dahlby '15 [1-2]
Anna Millbourn '18 [3-7]
Pine View School Pine View School Pythons 11 4 8 2 1 1 1 28 Nick Hernandez '15
Garrett Lawlor '16
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 2 5 4 6 3 2 7 29 Bogan Whitehead '15 [1-7]
Matt Pelisek '17 [1-2]
Nate Hagen '16 [3-4]
Casey Goers '15 [5-7]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 6 1 2 7 2 7 6 31 Christopher Williford '15
Max Gillette '16
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Varsity 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 38 Preston Senior '15
Claire Anderson '15
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 1 3 11 13 7 10 4 49 Blaire Mccarthy '18 [1-6]
Liam Mccarthy '15 [7]
Liam Mccarthy '15 [1-6]
Blaire Mccarthy '18 [7]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 7 7 15 9 9 6 9 62 Shane Riera '17
George Williams '16
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves 12 10 3 8 11 9 12 65 Ian Macdiarmid '17 [1-7]
Rylee Macarthur '17 [1-4]
Shani Scwartz '15 [5-7]
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 10 8 13 12 10 11 8 72 Emmet Ward '16
Aislyn Graves '20
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Varsity 17 11 14 4 12 8 13 79 Nicholas Giacobbe '15
Jack Daye '17
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 9 13 9 10 8 16 16 81 Aaron Burnett '15
Anderson Brunsvold '18
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 13 12 10 11 15 12 14 87 Sinead Mcmanus '16
Charlotte Mack '17
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 14 14 6 17 16 15 10 92 Brendan Bennett '17
Michelle Burklan '17
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 16 15 12 14 13 17 11 98 Kathryn Bornarth '17
Trevor Tigges '17
Naples High School Naples High School Varsity 5 OCS 18 18 17 13 15 105 Lilly Capiola '19
Katie Mccomber '16
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Varsity 15 16 17 15 14 14 17 108 Mikaela Munao '18
Adriana Munao '16
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 18 OCS 16 16 18 18 18 123 Corbin Wood '16
Michel Dattoli '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 13 Nic Baird '15
Kathryn Booker '15
Pine View School Pine View School Pythons 1 7 2 5 1 1 1 18 Louisa Nordstrom '16
Zack Jordan '16
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 3 1 3 3 7 3 7 27 Trevor Bornarth '18
Nick Ochalek '17
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 4 3 6 6 5 6 2 32 Alie (Alexandra) Toppa '16 [1-4, 7]
Conner Correll '18 [5-6]
Dae Kelly '17 [1-4, 7]
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 5 8 4 2 8 8 10 45 Angelo Mehtala '15 [1-7]
Matt Pelisek '17 [1-6]
Casey Goers '15 [7]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Varsity 6 4 5 9 3 5 14 46 Nikki Smalley '17 [1-7]
Erica Brown '17 [1-4, 7]
Philiip Spada '16 [5-6]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves 9 6 7 11 4 12 5 54 Cameron Grubb '16
Delaney Brown '16
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 7 5 8 DSQ 6 4 8 57 Olivia De Olazarra '18
Lanier Williams '18
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 12 13 10 4 13 7 4 63 Jasmine Dahlby '15
Audrey Scanlon '15
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 11 15 11 8 15 11 6 77 Meleah Davies '15
Marti Macdonald '15
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 14 9 12 13 10 10 12 80 Mark Clare '15
Taylor Brunsvold '17
Naples High School Naples High School Varsity 8 12 13 15 9 9 16 82 Savannah Irvin '16
Jonathan Theobald '16
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 10 16 9 10 12 14 11 82 Chase Burwell '17
Tucker Mc Elwaney '18
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Varsity 17 14 17 7 11 17 9 92 Max Karpanty '17
Collin Sealey '17
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Varsity 16 17 15 12 14 13 13 100 Cameron Kuchar '17
Ryan Corrick '16
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 15 11 14 14 16 15 18 103 Juliana Cromie '16
Savannah Fondrk '18
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 13 10 18 17 18 18 17 111 Tanner Mcfadden '15 [1-7]
Nicole Sieling '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Emma Cronin '15 [3-4, 7]
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 18 18 16 16 17 16 15 116 Tyler Tone '17
Henderson Issac '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.280+0.28
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity1133557
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Varsity3355779
Manatee High SchoolManatee High School Hurricanes55779911
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers6688101012
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Varsity44668810
Naples High SchoolNaples High School Varsity7799111113
Osceola Fundamental High SchoolOsceola Fundamental High School Varsity881010121214
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy Thunderwolves991111131315
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pythons10101212141419
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Varsity2244668
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity11111313151521
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders212111335
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors12121414191922
Sarasota Military AcademySarasota Military Academy Eagles1313151521211
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers1414191922222
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS15152121113
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils19192222224
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors222222446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity2244668
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Varsity44668810
Manatee High SchoolManatee High School Hurricanes6688101012
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers7799111113
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Varsity55779911
Naples High SchoolNaples High School Varsity881010121214
Osceola Fundamental High SchoolOsceola Fundamental High School Varsity991111131315
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy Thunderwolves10101212141419
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pythons11111313151521
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Varsity3355779
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity12121414191922
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders222222446
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors1313151521211
Sarasota Military AcademySarasota Military Academy Eagles1414191922222
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers15152121113
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS19192222224
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils212111335
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Brendan Bennett '17 Michelle Burklan '17
Varsity Juliana Cromie '16 Savannah Fondrk '18
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Preston Senior '15 Claire Anderson '15
Varsity Nikki Smalley '17 [1-7] Erica Brown '17 [1-4, 7]
Philiip Spada '16 [5-6]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Nicholas Giacobbe '15 Jack Daye '17
Varsity Max Karpanty '17 Collin Sealey '17
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Mikaela Munao '18 Adriana Munao '16
Varsity Cameron Kuchar '17 Ryan Corrick '16
Manatee High School Manatee High School Corbin Wood '16 Michel Dattoli '18
Hurricanes Tyler Tone '17 Henderson Issac '18
Martin County High School Martin County High School Sinead Mcmanus '16 Charlotte Mack '17
Tigers Meleah Davies '15 Marti Macdonald '15
Naples High School Naples High School Lilly Capiola '19 Katie Mccomber '16
Varsity Savannah Irvin '16 Jonathan Theobald '16
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Emmet Ward '16 Aislyn Graves '20
Varsity Chase Burwell '17 Tucker Mc Elwaney '18
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Ian Macdiarmid '17 [1-7] Rylee Macarthur '17 [1-4]
Shani Scwartz '15 [5-7]
Thunderwolves Cameron Grubb '16 Delaney Brown '16
Pine View School Pine View School Nick Hernandez '15 Garrett Lawlor '16
Pythons Louisa Nordstrom '16 Zack Jordan '16
Riverview High School Riverview High School Aaron Burnett '15 Anderson Brunsvold '18
Varsity Mark Clare '15 Taylor Brunsvold '17
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Nico Schultz '16 [1-7] Jasmine Dahlby '15 [1-2]
Anna Millbourn '18 [3-7]
Sailors Jasmine Dahlby '15 Audrey Scanlon '15
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Bogan Whitehead '15 [1-7] Matt Pelisek '17 [1-2]
Nate Hagen '16 [3-4]
Casey Goers '15 [5-7]
Eagles Angelo Mehtala '15 [1-7] Matt Pelisek '17 [1-6]
Casey Goers '15 [7]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Patrick Shanahan '15 Peninah Benjamin '16
Chargers Nic Baird '15 Kathryn Booker '15
South Fork High School South Fork High School Kathryn Bornarth '17 Trevor Tigges '17
SF BULLDOGS Trevor Bornarth '18 Nick Ochalek '17
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Blaire Mccarthy '18 [1-6]
Liam Mccarthy '15 [7]		 Liam Mccarthy '15 [1-6]
Blaire Mccarthy '18 [7]
Green Devils Tanner Mcfadden '15 [1-7] Nicole Sieling '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Emma Cronin '15 [3-4, 7]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Christopher Williford '15 Max Gillette '16
Raiders Alie (Alexandra) Toppa '16 [1-4, 7]
Conner Correll '18 [5-6]		 Dae Kelly '17 [1-4, 7]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Shane Riera '17 George Williams '16
Warriors Olivia De Olazarra '18 Lanier Williams '18

Conditions — 12/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1021.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From N (357°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1021.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pine View: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pine View by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Pine View: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →