| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Pine View School | Pythons | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Wando High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
H. B. Plant High School | Panthers | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 620 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 48 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.664 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ransom Everglades School | 3.64 | 6.33 | 3–9 | 0.6 | +2.69 | 4.2 | 2% |
| 3 | Antilles School | 7.69 | 9.29 | 10–5 | 6.8 | +1.60 | 2.9 | 4% |
| 2 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 8.83 | 9.43 | 11–4 | 9.9 | +0.60 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 1 | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 9.47 | 9.31 | 11–4 | 11.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 5 | Wando High School | 7.42 | 7.18 | 6–9 | 6.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 7 | H. B. Plant High School | 5.55 | 3.17 | 1–11 | 2.6 | −2.38 | 2.0 | 99% |
| 4 | Pine View School | 10.07 | 7.16 | 6–6 | 10.3 | −2.91 | 7.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iker Belausteguigoitia | Ransom Everglades School | 1.30 | 3.98 | 3–9 | 0.6 | +2.69 | 4.2 | 2% |
| Adrianne Han | Ransom Everglades School | 1.27 | 3.96 | 3–9 | 0.6 | +2.69 | 4.2 | 2% |
| Leo Menninger | Ransom Everglades School | 0.59 | 3.28 | 3–9 | 0.6 | +2.69 | 4.2 | 2% |
| Alie (Alexandra) Toppa | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 2.67 | 3.28 | 11–4 | 9.9 | +0.60 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Nic Baird | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 3.33 | 3.17 | 11–4 | 11.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Austin Ando | Wando High School | 2.31 | 2.08 | 6–9 | 6.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Cameron Gise | Wando High School | 2.46 | 2.23 | 6–9 | 6.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Holly Wells | H. B. Plant High School | 1.85 | -0.53 | 1–11 | 2.6 | −2.38 | 2.0 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Pythons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pythons | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Chargers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Pythons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Pythons | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Chargers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pythons | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Chargers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pythons | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Pythons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Chargers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Pythons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Chargers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Pythons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Chargers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pythons | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Pythons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pythons | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Chargers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Chargers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
