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SAISA South Points #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 15 35 50
2 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 26 33 59
3 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 45 22 67
4 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 34 35 69
5 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 48 41 89
6 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 69 24 93
7 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 36 69 105
8 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 55 50 105
9 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 57 55 112
10 Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 66 54 120
11 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 61 65 126
12 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 70 80 150
13 Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 77 92 169
14 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 87 93 180
15 Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 100 95 195
16 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 109 108 217
17 Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Varsity 111 111 222
18 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 124 129 253
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 1 1 3 3 5 1 1 15 Louisa Nordstrom '16
Zack Jordan '16
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 2 2 1 1 8 10 26 Tucker Weed '18 [1-7]
Vera Mariani '16 [1-4, 7]
Adrianne Han '16 [5-6]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 4 5 6 8 2 5 4 34 Brandon Kirby '16
Alex Commette '17
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 6 4 8 4 6 6 2 36 Sam Baker '17
Ethan Osborne '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 3 6 11 6 3 4 12 45 Hannah Steadman '16 [1-7]
Peninah Benjamin '16 [1-6]
Sage Farley '16 [7]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 5 7 7 9 4 3 13 48 Jack Johansson '17
Benito Guido '16
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 9 11 9 2 12 7 5 55 Charlie Curtis '17 [1-2]
Connor Nelson '19 [3-7]
Dominic Canonico '19 [1-2]
Holly Wells '16 [3-6]
Erica Brown '17 [7]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 13 12 1 13 9 2 7 57 Zachary Boogaart '16 [1-7]
Morgan Matthews '16 [1-6]
Tommy Kilcourse '16 [7]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS BKD 13 5 10 7 11 6 61 Trevor Bornarth '18
Andrew Hammond '16
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 8 14 4 11 11 9 9 66 Mark Brunsvold '19
Marcus Bell '16
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 16 10 12 7 8 13 3 69 Conner Correll '18 [1-7]
Brian Buckley '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Max Gillette '16 [3-4, 7]
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 11 9 13 5 10 14 8 70 Chris Kiener '17
Nick Block '17
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 7 3 15 16 13 12 11 77 Nevin Avila '16 [1-7]
Michael Malkiewicz '16 [1-4]
Alex Pearson '18 [5-6]
Ethan Myott '17 [7]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 10 8 14 12 14 15 14 87 Mikaela Munao '18
Adriana Munao '16
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 14 15 16 14 15 10 16 100 Matt Pelisek '17 [1-4]
Hayley Cantolino '17 [5-7]
Hayley Cantolino '17 [1-4]
Matt Pelisek '17 [5-7]
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 12 16 17 17 16 16 15 109 Grant Boicheff '18 [1-7]
Phillip Peterson '17 [1-2]
Victoria Lescanzo '19 [3-4, 7]
Jake Lyle '17 [5-6]
Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Varsity 15 17 10 15 18 DNS 17 111 Elizabeth Davis '17
Abby Worthington '18
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 17 18 18 DNF 17 17 18 124 No Show
Leah Schulman '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers BKD BKD 2 1 8 1 4 22 Kyle Dochoda '17 [1-7]
Andreea Ranney-Pace '16 [1-2]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [3-7]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 9 1 1 4 1 3 5 24 Mack Fox '16
Dae Kelly '17
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 3 5 2 10 9 2 33 Paul Lobree '18 [1-4, 7]
Celine De Araujo '18 [5-6]
Alex Sidi '17 [1-4, 7]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [5-6]
Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 1 2 7 5 3 7 10 35 Isabella Lemole '16 [1-2, 7]
Hallie Schiffman '18 [3-6]
Michael Grass '17 [1-2, 7]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 5 5 11 7 2 2 3 35 Severin Gramm '19 [1-4]
Ian Macdiarmid '17 [5-7]
Delaney Brown '16 [1-4, 7]
Sammi Spritz '16 [5-6]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 12 7 6 3 4 8 1 41 Clay Snyder '18
Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 4 4 8 9 12 4 9 50 Nikki Smalley '17 [1-7]
Erica Brown '17 [1-6]
Dominic Canonico '19 [7]
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 3 8 15 6 5 6 11 54 Lillian Myers '19
Taylor Brunsvold '17
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 6 6 9 16 6 5 7 55 Caden Kuchura '16
Noah Hascup '16
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 10 13 4 13 7 10 8 65 Nick Ochalek '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Kathryn Bornarth '17 [3-4, 7]
Trevor Tigges '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Emma Barska '19 [3-4, 7]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 13 12 3 15 9 11 6 69 Brianna Wilson '17
Nicole Sikoryak '16
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 14 11 10 10 11 12 12 80 Kingsley Ehrich '19 [1-7]
Kara Percival '18 [1-4]
Jack Macdonald '18 [5-7]
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Varsity 7 15 13 11 17 16 13 92 Daniel Denison '17 [1-4]
Callista Hopkins '19 [5-7]
Kurban Ali '17 [1-4]
Hanna Brydon '17 [5-6]
Ethan Myott '17 [7]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 11 14 12 12 16 14 14 93 Cameron Kuchar '17
Alissa Stachelek '18
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Eagles DNS 10 16 8 13 13 16 95 Nate Hagen '16
Molly Cantolino '22
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 16 16 14 17 15 15 15 108 Phillip Peterson '17 [1-7]
Jillian Plouche '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Cole Madden '19 [3-4]
Jake Lyle '17 [7]
Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Varsity 15 17 17 14 14 17 17 111 Jakob Germann '17 [1-7]
Ursula Banos '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Audrey Wood '19 [3-4, 7]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity DNF DNF 18 DNF 18 18 18 129 Hannah Sternthal '19
Michael Gabe '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.250+0.25
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes1133557
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders221818161614
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons3355779
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School Varsity1313151517171
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers4422181816
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers55779911
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves12121010886
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity66442218
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pine View Varsity7799111113
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers15151717113
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders8866442
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity18181616141412
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1414121210108
Sarasota Military AcademySarasota Military Academy Eagles991111131315
Seacrest Country Day SchoolSeacrest Country Day School Varsity101088664
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers16161414121210
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS11111313151517
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils171711335

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes2244668
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders111717151513
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons44668810
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School Varsity1414161618182
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers3311171715
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers6688101012
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves111199775
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity55331117
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pine View Varsity881010121214
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers16161818224
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders7755331
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity17171515131311
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders13131111997
Sarasota Military AcademySarasota Military Academy Eagles10101212141416
Seacrest Country Day SchoolSeacrest Country Day School Varsity9977553
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers1515131311119
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS12121414161618
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils181822446
School / Team SkipperCrew
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Sam Baker '17 Ethan Osborne '19
Hurricanes Brianna Wilson '17 Nicole Sikoryak '16
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Jack Johansson '17 Benito Guido '16
Raiders Clay Snyder '18 Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Charlie Curtis '17 [1-2]
Connor Nelson '19 [3-7]		 Dominic Canonico '19 [1-2]
Holly Wells '16 [3-6]
Erica Brown '17 [7]
Panthers Nikki Smalley '17 [1-7] Erica Brown '17 [1-6]
Dominic Canonico '19 [7]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Zachary Boogaart '16 [1-7] Morgan Matthews '16 [1-6]
Tommy Kilcourse '16 [7]
Falcons Caden Kuchura '16 Noah Hascup '16
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Nevin Avila '16 [1-7] Michael Malkiewicz '16 [1-4]
Alex Pearson '18 [5-6]
Ethan Myott '17 [7]
Varsity Daniel Denison '17 [1-4]
Callista Hopkins '19 [5-7]		 Kurban Ali '17 [1-4]
Hanna Brydon '17 [5-6]
Ethan Myott '17 [7]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Mikaela Munao '18 Adriana Munao '16
Panthers Cameron Kuchar '17 Alissa Stachelek '18
Martin County High School Martin County High School Chris Kiener '17 Nick Block '17
Tigers Kingsley Ehrich '19 [1-7] Kara Percival '18 [1-4]
Jack Macdonald '18 [5-7]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Brandon Kirby '16 Alex Commette '17
ThunderWolves Severin Gramm '19 [1-4]
Ian Macdiarmid '17 [5-7]		 Delaney Brown '16 [1-4, 7]
Sammi Spritz '16 [5-6]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School No Show Leah Schulman '18
Varsity Hannah Sternthal '19 Michael Gabe '18
Pine View School Pine View School Louisa Nordstrom '16 Zack Jordan '16
Pine View Varsity Isabella Lemole '16 [1-2, 7]
Hallie Schiffman '18 [3-6]		 Michael Grass '17 [1-2, 7]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Tucker Weed '18 [1-7] Vera Mariani '16 [1-4, 7]
Adrianne Han '16 [5-6]
Raiders Paul Lobree '18 [1-4, 7]
Celine De Araujo '18 [5-6]		 Alex Sidi '17 [1-4, 7]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [5-6]
Riverview High School Riverview High School Mark Brunsvold '19 Marcus Bell '16
Varsity Lillian Myers '19 Taylor Brunsvold '17
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Matt Pelisek '17 [1-4]
Hayley Cantolino '17 [5-7]		 Hayley Cantolino '17 [1-4]
Matt Pelisek '17 [5-7]
Eagles Nate Hagen '16 Molly Cantolino '22
Seacrest Country Day School Seacrest Country Day School Elizabeth Davis '17 Abby Worthington '18
Varsity Jakob Germann '17 [1-7] Ursula Banos '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Audrey Wood '19 [3-4, 7]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Hannah Steadman '16 [1-7] Peninah Benjamin '16 [1-6]
Sage Farley '16 [7]
Chargers Kyle Dochoda '17 [1-7] Andreea Ranney-Pace '16 [1-2]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [3-7]
South Fork High School South Fork High School Trevor Bornarth '18 Andrew Hammond '16
SF BULLDOGS Nick Ochalek '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Kathryn Bornarth '17 [3-4, 7]		 Trevor Tigges '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Emma Barska '19 [3-4, 7]
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Grant Boicheff '18 [1-7] Phillip Peterson '17 [1-2]
Victoria Lescanzo '19 [3-4, 7]
Jake Lyle '17 [5-6]
Green Devils Phillip Peterson '17 [1-7] Jillian Plouche '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Cole Madden '19 [3-4]
Jake Lyle '17 [7]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 [1-7] Brian Buckley '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Max Gillette '16 [3-4, 7]
Raiders Mack Fox '16 Dae Kelly '17

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.0 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From ENE (73°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1017.5 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →