SAISA Baker Qualifier

HostUS Sailing Center Martin County
Date03/25/2017
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420/CFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	0–0
2	Antilles School	Hurricanes	0–0
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	0–0
4	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	0–0
5	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	0–0
6	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	0–0
7	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,679 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 63 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.320 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.68 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 91% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	1	8.01 school +0.14	Shawn Harvey / Bernat Miro 2.78 Paul Lobree / Alex Sidi 2.28 Tucker Weed / Mcleod Kennedy 2.58	76%	16–2 (89%)	+2.3
2	Antilles School Hurricanes	2	7.86 school +0.38	Sam Morrell / Caroline Teare 2.63 Christopher Sharpless / Robert Hunter Teddy Nicolosi / Ryan Hunter	74%	15–3 (83%)	+1.8
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	3	7.37 school +0.28	Conner Correll / Dae Kelly 2.37 Sophia Reineke / Calli Lewis 2.91 10–5 Joey Meagher / Brian Buckley 10–5 Sophia Reineke / Brian Buckley 3.03 3–0 Chase Sabadash / Calli Lewis 3–0	64%	13–5 (72%)	+1.4
4	H. B. Plant High School Panthers	4	6.59 school +0.13	Connor Nelson / Erica Brown 2.58 Charlie Curtis / Audrey Perry 1.78 Brandon Geller / Dominic Canonico 1.92	51%	9–9 (50%)	−0.2
5	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	5	6.23 school −0.32	Kyle Bramson / Logan Katz Jack Johansson / Roberto Lugones 2.09 Clay Snyder / Teddy Bueres 2.43	45%	5–13 (28%)	−3.1
6	Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	6	5.61 school +0.13	Kyle Dochoda / Brandon Depalma 2.25 Heather Kerns / Anika Boicheff Elizabeth Shanahan / Lily Schneider	34%	5–13 (28%)	−1.2
7	Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	7	3.08 school −0.27	Derek Pearson / Rylee Macarthur Alex Commette / John Cotter Alec Sullivan / Trevor Honeycutt	6%	0–18 (0%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Ransom Everglades School	8.01	9.32	16–2	13.7	+1.31	1.6	14%
2	Antilles School	7.86	8.71	15–3	13.2	+0.85	0.8	24%
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	7.37	7.94	13–5	11.6	+0.57	0.4	31%
4	H. B. Plant High School	6.59	6.51	9–9	9.2	−0.09	0.0	65%
6	Shorecrest Preparatory School	5.61	5.04	5–13	6.2	−0.57	0.4	84%
5	Gulliver Preparatory School	6.23	4.87	5–13	8.1	−1.36	2.2	98%
7	Oxbridge Academy	3.08	0.08	0–18	1.0	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Chase Sabadash	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	1.81	4.81	3–0	2.9	≥+3.00	0.1	92%
Paul Lobree	Ransom Everglades School	2.28	3.59	16–2	13.7	+1.31	1.6	14%
Conner Correll	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	2.37	2.94	13–5	11.6	+0.57	0.4	31%
Clay Snyder	Gulliver Preparatory School	2.43	1.08	5–13	8.1	−1.36	2.2	98%
Alex Commette	Oxbridge Academy	1.20	-1.80	0–18	1.0	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%
Alec Sullivan	Oxbridge Academy	1.09	-1.91	0–18	1.0	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Ransom Everglades School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	88%
1	2	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	H. B. Plant High School	63%
1	3	Antilles School	Gulliver Preparatory School	76%
1	4	Ransom Everglades School	Oxbridge Academy	98%
1	5	H. B. Plant High School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	70%
1	6	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	70%
1	7	Antilles School	Oxbridge Academy	98%
1	8	Ransom Everglades School	H. B. Plant High School	75%
1	9	Gulliver Preparatory School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	63%
1	10	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Antilles School	41%	upset
1	11	H. B. Plant High School	Oxbridge Academy	94%
1	12	Ransom Everglades School	Gulliver Preparatory School	80%
1	13	Antilles School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	85%
1	14	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Oxbridge Academy	97%
1	15	H. B. Plant High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	57%
1	16	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	53%
1	17	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	79%
1	18	Gulliver Preparatory School	Oxbridge Academy	92%
1	19	Antilles School	H. B. Plant High School	73%
1	20	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	63%
1	21	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Oxbridge Academy	88%
2	22	Ransom Everglades School	H. B. Plant High School	75%
2	23	Gulliver Preparatory School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	62%
2	24	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Oxbridge Academy	97%
2	25	Antilles School	H. B. Plant High School	73%
2	26	Ransom Everglades School	Gulliver Preparatory School	80%
2	27	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Oxbridge Academy	88%
2	28	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	61%
2	29	H. B. Plant High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	57%
2	30	Ransom Everglades School	Oxbridge Academy	98%
2	31	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	79%
2	32	Antilles School	Gulliver Preparatory School	78%
2	33	H. B. Plant High School	Oxbridge Academy	94%
2	34	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	63%
2	35	Antilles School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	85%
2	36	Gulliver Preparatory School	Oxbridge Academy	92%
2	37	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	H. B. Plant High School	64%
2	38	Ransom Everglades School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	86%
2	39	Antilles School	Oxbridge Academy	98%
2	40	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	70%
2	41	H. B. Plant High School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	68%
2	42	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	52%
3	43	H. B. Plant High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	57%
3	44	Ransom Everglades School	Oxbridge Academy	98%
3	45	Antilles School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	85%
3	46	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	70%
3	47	H. B. Plant High School	Oxbridge Academy	94%
3	48	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	48%	upset
3	49	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	79%
3	50	Gulliver Preparatory School	Oxbridge Academy	92%
3	51	Antilles School	H. B. Plant High School	74%
3	52	Ransom Everglades School	Shorecrest Preparatory School	86%
3	53	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Oxbridge Academy	97%
3	54	Antilles School	Gulliver Preparatory School	79%
3	55	Shorecrest Preparatory School	H. B. Plant High School	32%	upset
3	56	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	63%
3	57	Antilles School	Oxbridge Academy	98%
3	58	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Gulliver Preparatory School	39%	upset
3	59	H. B. Plant High School	Ransom Everglades School	25%	upset
3	60	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	62%
3	61	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Oxbridge Academy	88%
3	62	Ransom Everglades School	Gulliver Preparatory School	80%
3	63	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	H. B. Plant High School	64%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Chargers	3-4-6
2	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
3	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
4	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
5	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Chargers	3-4-5
6	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
7	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
8	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Panthers	3-5-6
9	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Chargers	3-5-6
10	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
11	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	ThunderWolves	3-4-5
12	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
13	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Chargers	3-5-6
14	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
15	Panthers	1-3-5	def.	Raiders	2-4-6
16	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
17	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Chargers	3-4-6
18	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
19	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
20	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
21	Chargers	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
22	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
23	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Chargers	4-5-6
24	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
25	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
26	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
27	Chargers	1-3-6	def.	ThunderWolves	2-4-5
28	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
29	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
30	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	ThunderWolves	3-5-6
31	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Chargers	3-4-6
32	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
33	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
34	Raiders	1-3-5	def.	Raiders	2-4-6
35	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Chargers	3-5-6
36	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	ThunderWolves	3-4-5
37	Raiders	1-3-4	def.	Panthers	2-5-6
38	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Chargers	3-4-6
39	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6
40	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
41	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Chargers	4-5-6
42	Raiders	1-3-6	def.	Hurricanes	2-4-5
43	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
44	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
45	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Chargers	4-5-6
46	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
47	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
48	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
49	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Chargers	1-4-6
50	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
51	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
52	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Chargers	3-4-5
53	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
54	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
55	Chargers	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
56	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
57	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
58	Chargers	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
59	Panthers	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
60	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
61	Chargers	1-2-3	def.	ThunderWolves	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
62	Raiders	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
63	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	Paul Lobree '18 Shawn Harvey '17 Tucker Weed '18	Alex Sidi '17 Bernat Miro '19 Mcleod Kennedy '19
Antilles School	Hurricanes	Christopher Sharpless '19 Sam Morrell '17 Teddy Nicolosi '19	Robert Hunter '18 Caroline Teare '17 Ryan Hunter '17
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	Chase Sabadash '18 Conner Correll '18 Joey Meagher '20 Sophia Reineke '17	Calli Lewis '17 Dae Kelly '17 Brian Buckley '17
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	Brandon Geller '19 Charlie Curtis '17 Connor Nelson '19	Dominic Canonico '19 Audrey Perry '17 Erica Brown '17
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	Clay Snyder '18 Jack Johansson '17 Kyle Bramson '20	Teddy Bueres '19 Roberto Lugones '20 Logan Katz '17
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	Elizabeth Shanahan '19 Heather Kerns '20 Kyle Dochoda '17	Lily Schneider '19 Anika Boicheff '20 Brandon Depalma '17
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	Alec Sullivan '17 Alex Commette '17 Derek Pearson '17	Trevor Honeycutt '19 John Cotter '17 Rylee Macarthur '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →