| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 15–3 |
| 2 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 14–4 |
| 3 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 11–7 |
| 4 |  |
Gulliver Preparatory School | Raiders | 10–8 |
| 5 |  |
H. B. Plant High School | Panthers | 6–12 |
| 6 |  |
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | 5–13 |
| 7 |  |
Sarasota High School | Sailors | 2–16 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 63 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.581 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.59 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 5.50 | 8.03 | 14–4 | 7.4 | +2.53 | 9.0 | <1% |
| 4 | Gulliver Preparatory School | 6.08 | 6.37 | 10–8 | 9.2 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 1 | Antilles School | 7.90 | 8.01 | 15–3 | 14.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 6 | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 4.88 | 4.69 | 5–13 | 5.5 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 70% |
| 7 | Sarasota High School | 3.69 | 3.41 | 2–16 | 2.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 3 | Ransom Everglades School | 7.20 | 6.50 | 11–7 | 12.8 | −0.70 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 5 | H. B. Plant High School | 6.57 | 4.74 | 6–12 | 10.9 | −1.82 | 5.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sabadash | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 1.89 | 4.42 | 14–4 | 7.4 | +2.53 | 9.0 | <1% |
| Conner Correll | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 2.30 | 4.83 | 14–4 | 7.4 | +2.53 | 9.0 | <1% |
| Conner Boland | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 0.54 | 3.07 | 14–4 | 7.4 | +2.53 | 9.0 | <1% |
| Clay Snyder | Gulliver Preparatory School | 2.15 | 2.43 | 10–8 | 9.2 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 44% |
| Andrew Florio | Sarasota High School | 0.52 | 0.24 | 2–16 | 2.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Paul Lobree | Ransom Everglades School | 2.11 | 1.40 | 11–7 | 12.8 | −0.70 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Sean Toro | H. B. Plant High School | 1.50 | -0.32 | 6–12 | 10.9 | −1.82 | 5.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Panthers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Sailors | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| 48 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 54 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-3-4 DSQ |
| 56 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Chargers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-4-6 |
| 58 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 59 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Chargers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Chargers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Antilles School | Hurricanes | Christopher Sharpless '19 Robert Hunter '18 Teddy Nicolosi '19 |
Rayne Duff '21 Victoria Flatley '20 Mateo Di Blasi '21 Gillian Perrell '20 |
|
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | Chase Sabadash '18 Conner Boland '21 Conner Correll '18 |
Kenna Reed '20 Libby Redmond '20 Bobby Rielly '21 |
|
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | Julia Johansson '19 Paul Lobree '18 Tucker Weed '18 |
Bernat Miro '19 Kat Cochran '18 Maddie Sharp '18 |
|
Gulliver Preparatory School | Raiders | Clay Snyder '18 Daniel Hughes '21 Kyle Bramson '20 |
Karen Liberman '20 Teddy Bueres '19 Matthew Bueres '21 |
|
H. B. Plant High School | Panthers | Brandon Geller '19 Connor Nelson '19 Sean Toro '19 |
Dominic Canonico '19 Tee Chulikavit '19 Spencer Brooks '19 |
|
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | Elizabeth Shanahan '19 Heather Kerns '20 Heidi Hicks '21 |
Lily Schneider '19 Zuri Patel '20 Thomas Cura '21 |
|
Sarasota High School | Sailors | Andrew Florio '20 Matthew King '20 Will Murray '20 |
Dan Keim '19 Kailin Foster '20 Luke Johnson '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
