South Points 5 (Varsity)

HostRansom Everglades
Date01/09/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	56	17	73
2	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	35	49	84
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	22	62	84
4	Pine View School	Pine View Varsity	52	42	94
5	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	47	48	95
6	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	51	49	100
7	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	47	56	103
8	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	59	73	132
9	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	70	67	137
10	Lakewood High School	Varsity	85	59	144
11	Dunedin High School	Varsity	59	90	149
12	Warriors	Warriors	109 MRP	54 MRP	163 MRP
13	Coral Shores High School	Hurricanes	89	88	177
14	Martin County High School	Tigers	91	87	178
15	Community School of Naples	Varsity	94	110	204
16	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	117	106	223
17	Coral Gables Senior High	Varsity	86	168	254
18	Sarasota Military Academy	Eagles	136	124	260
19	Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	151	109	260
20	Pine Crest School	Varsity	137	135	272
21	Seacrest Country Day School	Varsity	156	125	281
22	Varsity	Varsity	157 MRP	172 MRP	329 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	2	4	1	1	4	3	7	22	Sophia Reineke '17 Max Gillette '16
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	1	8	3	6	5	8	4	35	Josh Dochoda '16 Andreea Ranney-Pace '16
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	3	3	6	7	10	10	8	47	Connor Nelson '19 Erica Brown '17
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	4	7	8	OCS	1	1	2	47	Ian Macdiarmid '17 Sammi Spritz '16
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	6	1	2	OCS	6	2	10	51	Shawn Harvey '17 [1-7] Adrianne Han '16 [1-2, 5-7] Delilah Lubarsky '17 [3-4]
Pine View School	Pine View Varsity	16	2	4	3	2	20	5	52	Louisa Nordstrom '16 Zack Jordan '16
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	13	13	5	2	11	9	3	56	Jack Johansson '17 Benito Guido '16
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	5	11	10	9	3	4	17	59	Trevor Bornarth '18 [1-7] Nick Ochalek '17 [1-4] Andrew Hammond '16 [5-7]
Dunedin High School	Varsity	7	9	14	5	13	5	6	59	Joshua Temko '17 Juliana Cromie '16
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	12	BKD	9	4	7	19	9	70	Zachary Boogaart '16 [1-7] Morgan Matthews '16 [1-6] Chris Haner '17 [7]
Lakewood High School	Varsity	11	10	12	11	17	13	11	85	Nevin Avila '16 [1-7] Charlie Langer '17 [1-2, 7] Kurban Ali '17 [3-4] Ethan Myott '17 [5-6]
Coral Gables Senior High	Varsity	8	14	7	OCS	8	6	19	86	Grace Howie '16 [1-7] Sofia Bratt '16 [1-6] Virgil Alfred '18 [7]
Coral Shores High School	Hurricanes	17	6	11	OCS	18	12	1	89	Sam Baker '17 Ethan Osborne '19
Martin County High School	Tigers	18	12	20	10	9	7	15	91	Chris Kiener '17 Nick Block '17
Community School of Naples	Varsity	9	19	13	14	12	15	12	94	Matthew Magardino '17 [1-2, 5-6] Hunter Puzak '18 [3-4, 7] Alexander Askar '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Warriors	Warriors	10	15	18	8	14	11	13	109 MRP
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	15	18	15	OCS	15	16	14	117	Blaire Mccarthy '18 Victoria Lescanzo '19
Sarasota Military Academy	Eagles	21	20	17	OCS	16	18	20	136	Matt Pelisek '17 Samantha Ulrich '17
Pine Crest School	Varsity	20	17	22	13	21	21	23	137	Harrison Freedman '19 [1-7] Leah Schulman '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Bilello '18 [3-4] Samantha Tartell '19 [7]
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	23	22	21	OCS	20	23	18	151	Paige Dannenhauer '17 Reed Gilmore '19
Seacrest Country Day School	Varsity	22	21	23	OCS	23	22	21	156	Madelyn Lyon '16 [1-2, 5-6] Elizabeth Davis '17 [3-4, 7] Abby Worthington '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Varsity	Varsity	19	23	19	OCS	19	17	16	157 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	2	1	5	1	5	2	1	17	Sean Brennan '17 Teddy Bueres '19
Pine View School	Pine View Varsity	6	5	3	7	8	3	10	42	Hallie Schiffman '18 Garrett Lawlor '16
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	5	6	1	2	12	8	14	48	Severin Gramm '19 Delaney Brown '16
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	1	2	4	10	6	OCS	2	49	Tucker Weed '18 [1-4, 7] Paul Lobree '18 [5-6] Vera Mariani '16 [1-4, 7] Alex Sidi '17 [5-6]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	11	11	6	5	7	1	8	49	Hannah Steadman '16 [1-4] Kyle Dochoda '17 [5-7] Peninah Benjamin '16 [1-4, 7] Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [5-6]
Warriors	Warriors	4	3	2	6	2	12	5	54 MRP
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	7	9	12	14	4	6	4	56	Nikki Smalley '17 Audrey Perry '17
Lakewood High School	Varsity	9	7	11	9	1	5	17	59	Callista Hopkins '19 [1-7] Michael Malkiewicz '16 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Pearson '18 [3-4, 7]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	3	8	13	13	3	11	11	62	Chase Sabadash '18 [1-7] Brian Buckley '17 [1-4] Clyde Wright '16 [5-7]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	14	18	7	8	13	4	3	67	Max Karpanty '17 [1-4] Caden Kuchura '16 [5-7] Chris Haner '17 [1-4] Noah Hascup '16 [5-7]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	17	4	8	4	14	10	16	73	Kathryn Bornarth '17 Emma Barska '19
Martin County High School	Tigers	10	12	10	3	19	20	13	87	Kingsley Ehrich '19 [1-4, 7] Jack Macdonald '18 [5-6] Jack Macdonald '18 [1-4] Kara Percival '18 [5-7]
Coral Shores High School	Hurricanes	13	10	16	17	18	7	7	88	Brianna Wilson '17 Nicole Sikoryak '16
Dunedin High School	Varsity	8	14	14	11	15	13	15	90	Matthew Snyder '18 [1, 3, 5, 7] Mia Porter '17 [2, 4, 6] Aine Porter '19 [1, 3, 5, 7] Hannah Stricker '18 [2, 4, 6]
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	12	17	17	12	10	18	20	106	Grant Boicheff '18 [1-7] Jillian Plouche '19 [1-2, 7] Jake Lyle '17 [3-6]
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	16	13	19	16	OCS	15	6	109	Dahlia Dry '19 Sarah Brown '18
Community School of Naples	Varsity	21	15	15	15	9	14	21	110	Johnny Magardino '19 [1-2, 5-7] Kristina Puzak '18 [3-4] Harrison Rogers '19 [1-2, 5-7]
Sarasota Military Academy	Eagles	18	16	9	21	DSQ	17	19	124	Nate Hagen '16 Molly Cantolino '22
Seacrest Country Day School	Varsity	20	DSQ	20	20	16	16	9	125	Jocelyn Lyon '18 Audrey Wood '19
Pine Crest School	Varsity	19	19	21	18	17	19	22	135	Noah Fischer '19 [1-2, 5-6] Hannah Sternthal '19 [3-4, 7] Kirsten Mclaren '19 [1-2, 5-6] Samantha Tartell '19 [3-4] Jack Bilello '18 [7]
Coral Gables Senior High	Varsity	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	168	Grace Howie '16 [1-7] Sofia Bratt '16 [1-6] Virgil Alfred '18 [7]
Varsity	Varsity	22	20	DNF	DNF	20	DNF	18	172 MRP

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Varsity Varsity	20	20	22	22	1	1	3
Community School of Naples Varsity	22	22	1	1	3	3	5
Coral Gables Senior High Varsity	16	16	18	18	20	20	22
Coral Shores High School Hurricanes	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Dunedin High School Varsity	14	14	16	16	18	18	20
Fort Myers High School Green Wave	21	21	23	23	2	2	4
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Lakewood High School Varsity	13	13	15	15	17	17	19
Martin County High School Tigers	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Pine Crest School Varsity	15	15	17	17	19	19	21
Pine View School Pine View Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	18	18	20	20	22	22	1
Sarasota Military Academy Eagles	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Seacrest Country Day School Varsity	19	19	21	21	23	23	2
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Warriors Warriors	17	17	19	19	21	21	23

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Varsity Varsity	21	21	23	23	2	2	4
Community School of Naples Varsity	23	23	2	2	4	4	6
Coral Gables Senior High Varsity	17	17	19	19	21	21	23
Coral Shores High School Hurricanes	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Dunedin High School Varsity	15	15	17	17	19	19	21
Fort Myers High School Green Wave	22	22	1	1	3	3	5
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Lakewood High School Varsity	14	14	16	16	18	18	20
Martin County High School Tigers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Pine Crest School Varsity	16	16	18	18	20	20	22
Pine View School Pine View Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	13	13	15	15	17	17	19
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	19	19	21	21	23	23	2
Sarasota Military Academy Eagles	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Seacrest Country Day School Varsity	20	20	22	22	1	1	3
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Warriors Warriors	18	18	20	20	22	22	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Community School of Naples	Matthew Magardino '17 [1-2, 5-6] Hunter Puzak '18 [3-4, 7]	Alexander Askar '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Varsity	Johnny Magardino '19 [1-2, 5-7] Kristina Puzak '18 [3-4]	Harrison Rogers '19 [1-2, 5-7]
Coral Gables Senior High	Grace Howie '16 [1-7]	Sofia Bratt '16 [1-6] Virgil Alfred '18 [7]
Varsity	Grace Howie '16 [1-7]	Sofia Bratt '16 [1-6] Virgil Alfred '18 [7]
Coral Shores High School	Sam Baker '17	Ethan Osborne '19
Hurricanes	Brianna Wilson '17	Nicole Sikoryak '16
Dunedin High School	Joshua Temko '17	Juliana Cromie '16
Varsity	Matthew Snyder '18 [1, 3, 5, 7] Mia Porter '17 [2, 4, 6]	Aine Porter '19 [1, 3, 5, 7] Hannah Stricker '18 [2, 4, 6]
Fort Myers High School	Paige Dannenhauer '17	Reed Gilmore '19
Green Wave	Dahlia Dry '19	Sarah Brown '18
Gulliver Preparatory School	Jack Johansson '17	Benito Guido '16
Raiders	Sean Brennan '17	Teddy Bueres '19
H. B. Plant High School	Connor Nelson '19	Erica Brown '17
Panthers	Nikki Smalley '17	Audrey Perry '17
Jensen Beach High School	Zachary Boogaart '16 [1-7]	Morgan Matthews '16 [1-6] Chris Haner '17 [7]
Falcons	Max Karpanty '17 [1-4] Caden Kuchura '16 [5-7]	Chris Haner '17 [1-4] Noah Hascup '16 [5-7]
Lakewood High School	Nevin Avila '16 [1-7]	Charlie Langer '17 [1-2, 7] Kurban Ali '17 [3-4] Ethan Myott '17 [5-6]
Varsity	Callista Hopkins '19 [1-7]	Michael Malkiewicz '16 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Pearson '18 [3-4, 7]
Martin County High School	Chris Kiener '17	Nick Block '17
Tigers	Kingsley Ehrich '19 [1-4, 7] Jack Macdonald '18 [5-6]	Jack Macdonald '18 [1-4] Kara Percival '18 [5-7]
Oxbridge Academy	Ian Macdiarmid '17	Sammi Spritz '16
ThunderWolves	Severin Gramm '19	Delaney Brown '16
Pine Crest School	Harrison Freedman '19 [1-7]	Leah Schulman '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Bilello '18 [3-4] Samantha Tartell '19 [7]
Varsity	Noah Fischer '19 [1-2, 5-6] Hannah Sternthal '19 [3-4, 7]	Kirsten Mclaren '19 [1-2, 5-6] Samantha Tartell '19 [3-4] Jack Bilello '18 [7]
Pine View School	Louisa Nordstrom '16	Zack Jordan '16
Pine View Varsity	Hallie Schiffman '18	Garrett Lawlor '16
Ransom Everglades School	Shawn Harvey '17 [1-7]	Adrianne Han '16 [1-2, 5-7] Delilah Lubarsky '17 [3-4]
Raiders	Tucker Weed '18 [1-4, 7] Paul Lobree '18 [5-6]	Vera Mariani '16 [1-4, 7] Alex Sidi '17 [5-6]
Sarasota Military Academy	Matt Pelisek '17	Samantha Ulrich '17
Eagles	Nate Hagen '16	Molly Cantolino '22
Seacrest Country Day School	Madelyn Lyon '16 [1-2, 5-6] Elizabeth Davis '17 [3-4, 7]	Abby Worthington '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Varsity	Jocelyn Lyon '18	Audrey Wood '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Josh Dochoda '16	Andreea Ranney-Pace '16
Chargers	Hannah Steadman '16 [1-4] Kyle Dochoda '17 [5-7]	Peninah Benjamin '16 [1-4, 7] Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [5-6]
South Fork High School	Trevor Bornarth '18 [1-7]	Nick Ochalek '17 [1-4] Andrew Hammond '16 [5-7]
SF BULLDOGS	Kathryn Bornarth '17	Emma Barska '19
St. Petersburg High School	Blaire Mccarthy '18	Victoria Lescanzo '19
Green Devils	Grant Boicheff '18 [1-7]	Jillian Plouche '19 [1-2, 7] Jake Lyle '17 [3-6]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Sophia Reineke '17	Max Gillette '16
Raiders	Chase Sabadash '18 [1-7]	Brian Buckley '17 [1-4] Clyde Wright '16 [5-7]

Conditions — 01/09/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 80°F ↓ 66°F

Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 6.2 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1012.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Ransom Everglades: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.22 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ransom Everglades by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Ransom Everglades, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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