Gulliver Preparatory School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.34 (fleet 3.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–9 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 5–9 against 7.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-30 | SAISA District Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.50 | 1.40 | 5–9 | 7.3 | −1.10 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points 5 (2017) - Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.2 | 6.17 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SP 4 | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 2.77 |
| South Points 2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.2 | 2.63 |
| SAISA South Points #3 (Varsity) | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 1.20 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #6 Varsity | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 2.80 |
| SAISA Districts/Mallory Elimination | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 2.46 |
| SAISA District Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 5 (Varsity) | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 3.53 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #7 | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 1.38 |
| SAISA SP-6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 0.78 |
| SAISA District Championships | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.2 | 0.80 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 1.91 |
| SAISA South Points #1 | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | 1.33 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 7 Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.7 | 0.98 |
| SAISA District Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.2 | 0.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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