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SAISA South Point 7

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 6 24 30
2 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 24 11 35
3 Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 31 5 36
4 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 23 21 44
5 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 17 27 44
6 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 15 35 50
7 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 35 36 71
8 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 44 31 75
9 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 56 23 79
10 Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 31 54 85
11 Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 20 76 96
12 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 60 38 98
13 Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 50 49 99
14 Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy 49 52 101
15 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 52 56 108
16 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Lady Falcons 62 58 120
17 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 62 58 120
18 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 59 66 125
19 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 68 62 130
20 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 82 70 152
21 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 78 76 154
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 1 2 2 1 6 Trevor Bornarth '18
Emma Barska '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 3 7 3 2 15 Connor Nelson '19
Tee Chulikavit '19
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 7 1 6 3 17 Conner Correll '18
Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 5 6 4 5 20 J.J. Smith '20 [1-4]
Mckenzie Robbins '20 [1-2]
Sebastian Windham '20 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 6 12 1 4 23 Tucker Weed '18
Maddie Sharp '18
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 4 3 10 7 24 Daniel Hughes '21
Teddy Bueres '19
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 2 5 12 12 31 Lillian Myers '19
Dylan Heinz '20
Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 9 9 5 8 31 Katie Nelson '20
Sam Roulston '21
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 13 8 8 6 35 Elizabeth Shanahan '19
Karlei Kongsiri '19
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 10 13 7 14 44 Alex Gonzalez '20
Ethan Osborne '19
Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy 16 4 19 10 49 Skye Ehrhart '18
Lucas Macleod '18
Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 12 11 16 11 50 Natalie Hoffman '26
Matthew Mason '19
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 11 10 14 17 52 Olivia De Olazarra '18
Natalia Gagliano '19
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 18 14 9 15 56 Matthew King '20
Anna Millbourn '18
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 17 16 17 9 59 Jack Macdonald '18
Kara Percival '18
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 19 17 11 13 60 Emma Shakespeare '20 [1-4]
Erika Desonie '19 [1-2]
Kalee Parmentier '19 [3-4]
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Lady Falcons 8 18 15 21 62 Jack Parker '19
Aine Porter '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 14 19 13 16 62 Chandler Scott '19
Oliver Stabley '18
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 15 15 18 20 68 Colin Lawther '20
Aislyn Graves '20
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 20 20 20 18 78 Nicholas Stange '20
Grace Lamb '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 21 21 21 19 82 Luke Weisberg '19 [1-2]
Trevor Honeycutt '19 [3-4]
Raquel Shulman '22 [1-2]
Liz Cloninger '22 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 1 1 1 2 5 Mark Brunsvold '19
Terra Ehrhart '20
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 2 3 3 3 11 Kyle Bramson '20
Roberto Lugones '20
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4 2 9 6 21 Julia Johansson '19
Hannah Bast '21
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 12 6 4 1 23 Will Murray '20
Dan Keim '19
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 6 5 8 5 24 Emily Bornarth '20
Emma Elliott '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 5 8 7 7 27 Chase Sabadash '18
Kenna Reed '20
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 3 14 6 8 31 Ella Marsden '20
Ethan Osborne '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 7 OCS 2 4 35 Brandon Geller '19 [1-2]
Sean Toro '19 [3-4]
Dominic Canonico '19 [1-2]
Spencer Brooks '20 [3-4]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 9 9 5 13 36 Heather Kerns '20
Zuri Patel '20
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 10 7 11 10 38 Emily Allen '21
Victoria Lescanzo '19
Pine View School Pine View School Pine View Varsity 11 4 OCS 12 49 Lila Van Den Broek '18
Neel Gupta '21
Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy 14 13 10 15 52 Ryan Appleby '18
Courtney Hamilton '18
Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 13 18 12 11 54 Jonathan Joyner '19
Carolina Cassedy '18
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 18 11 13 14 56 Jonathan Gleason '22 [1-4]
Luciana Solorzano '20 [1-2]
Mariana Sierra '23 [3-4]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 8 12 DNS 16 58 Chloe Hudgins '20
Dina Coletti '20
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Lady Falcons 19 16 14 9 58 Jacob Armitage '20
Grace Pfaelzer '21
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 17 10 15 20 62 Dana Aljasir '20 [1-4]
Corinne Graves '20 [1-2]
Noah Bardes '20 [3-4]
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 15 17 17 17 66 Kathryn Thorsen '21 [1-2]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [3-4]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [1-2]
Kathryn Thorsen '21 [3-4]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 20 15 16 19 70 Alexander Barr '19
Aidan Deitrick '20
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 16 20 19 21 76 Sebastian Windham '20
Alexa San Juan '21
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 21 19 18 18 76 Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20
Austin Daigle '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes8833
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Lady Falcons222020
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders3344
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons4499
Manatee High SchoolManatee High School Hurricanes991818
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers551717
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers6655
Osceola Fundamental High SchoolOsceola Fundamental High School Varsity18181616
Out-of Door AcademyOut-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy171711
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves16161515
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pine View Varsity111919
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers202066
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders15152121
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity19191010
Robinson High SchoolRobinson High School Knights21211414
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders131388
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors101077
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers14141111
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS771313
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils11111212
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors121222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes222020
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Lady Falcons3344
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders202066
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons6655
Manatee High SchoolManatee High School Hurricanes551717
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers18181616
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers991818
Osceola Fundamental High SchoolOsceola Fundamental High School Varsity171711
Out-of Door AcademyOut-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy16161515
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves111919
Pine View SchoolPine View School Pine View Varsity15152121
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers4499
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders19191010
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity21211414
Robinson High SchoolRobinson High School Knights101077
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders121222
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors14141111
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers771313
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS11111212
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils131388
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors8833
School / Team SkipperCrew
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Alex Gonzalez '20 Ethan Osborne '19
Hurricanes Ella Marsden '20 Ethan Osborne '19
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Jack Parker '19 Aine Porter '19
Lady Falcons Jacob Armitage '20 Grace Pfaelzer '21
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Daniel Hughes '21 Teddy Bueres '19
Raiders Kyle Bramson '20 Roberto Lugones '20
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 Tee Chulikavit '19
Panthers Brandon Geller '19 [1-2]
Sean Toro '19 [3-4]		 Dominic Canonico '19 [1-2]
Spencer Brooks '20 [3-4]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Chandler Scott '19 Oliver Stabley '18
Falcons Chloe Hudgins '20 Dina Coletti '20
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Nicholas Stange '20 Grace Lamb '20
Panthers Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20 Austin Daigle '20
Manatee High School Manatee High School J.J. Smith '20 [1-4] Mckenzie Robbins '20 [1-2]
Sebastian Windham '20 [3-4]
Hurricanes Sebastian Windham '20 Alexa San Juan '21
Martin County High School Martin County High School Jack Macdonald '18 Kara Percival '18
Tigers Kathryn Thorsen '21 [1-2]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [3-4]		 Jaxson Stehlin '20 [1-2]
Kathryn Thorsen '21 [3-4]
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Colin Lawther '20 Aislyn Graves '20
Varsity Dana Aljasir '20 [1-4] Corinne Graves '20 [1-2]
Noah Bardes '20 [3-4]
Out-of Door Academy Out-of Door Academy Skye Ehrhart '18 Lucas Macleod '18
Out-of Door Academy Ryan Appleby '18 Courtney Hamilton '18
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Luke Weisberg '19 [1-2]
Trevor Honeycutt '19 [3-4]		 Raquel Shulman '22 [1-2]
Liz Cloninger '22 [3-4]
ThunderWolves Alexander Barr '19 Aidan Deitrick '20
Pine View School Pine View School Natalie Hoffman '26 Matthew Mason '19
Pine View Varsity Lila Van Den Broek '18 Neel Gupta '21
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Tucker Weed '18 Maddie Sharp '18
Raiders Julia Johansson '19 Hannah Bast '21
Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 Dylan Heinz '20
Varsity Mark Brunsvold '19 Terra Ehrhart '20
Robinson High School Robinson High School Katie Nelson '20 Sam Roulston '21
Knights Jonathan Joyner '19 Carolina Cassedy '18
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 Anna Millbourn '18
Sailors Will Murray '20 Dan Keim '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 Karlei Kongsiri '19
Chargers Heather Kerns '20 Zuri Patel '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School Trevor Bornarth '18 Emma Barska '19
SF BULLDOGS Emily Bornarth '20 Emma Elliott '21
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Emma Shakespeare '20 [1-4] Erika Desonie '19 [1-2]
Kalee Parmentier '19 [3-4]
Green Devils Emily Allen '21 Victoria Lescanzo '19
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21
Raiders Chase Sabadash '18 Kenna Reed '20
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Olivia De Olazarra '18 Natalia Gagliano '19
Warriors Jonathan Gleason '22 [1-4] Luciana Solorzano '20 [1-2]
Mariana Sierra '23 [3-4]

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.7 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1017.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →