Herreshoff Qualifier #2 - Duxbury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 17 17 34
2 BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights 18 41 59
3 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 32 27 59
4 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Magician 40 29 69
5 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 44 30 74
6 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 40 47 87
7 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 44 45 89
8 The Taft School The Taft School Big Red Rhinos 59 59 118
9 Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 66 65 131
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 17 Audrey Morin '17
Sierra Farhman '18
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights 1 1 7 2 2 1 2 2 18 Brooke Shachoy '18
Lidia Goldberg '18
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 4 3 6 1 1 6 5 6 32 Jessica Mcjones '16 [1-8]
Kelly Shea '16 [1-6]
Jackie Morrison '18 [7-8]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Magician 5 8 4 5 4 3 4 7 40 Islay Van Dusen '18
Eliza Hancock '17
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 3 40 Mary Morano '17
Sayln Yancey '18
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 3 9 2 7 7 5 7 4 44 Caitlyn Sarles '16
Paige Hoffman '17
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 8 4 1 4 8 7 3 9 44 Julia Haidar '16
Anna Liss-Roy '16
The Taft School The Taft School Big Red Rhinos 9 6 8 9 6 8 8 5 59 Hannah White '16
Kim Amelsberg '16
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 7 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 66 Naomi Geffken '17
Maya Pan '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 2 4 1 1 6 1 1 1 17 Grace Mooridian '17
Catherine Carpenter '19
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 1 1 3 2 4 7 3 6 27 Emily Bredin '17 [1-6]
Faith Cournoyer '19 [7-8]
Grace Benzal '17 [1-6]
Sydney Welch '16 [7-8]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Magician 4 2 2 3 3 4 6 5 29 Marika Van Dusen '16
Katie Rodger '16
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 9 5 4 5 1 2 2 2 30 Katie Lojko '19
Gretchen Mccarthy '16
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights 3 3 7 4 9 8 4 3 41 Zoe Ting '18 [1-8]
Madeleine Ford '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Abigail Ford '19 [3-4]
Evvy O'Neil '16 [5-6]
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 5 6 5 7 7 3 5 7 45 Jenna Weiner '17 [1-2]
Catherine Zhu '18 [3-8]
Megan Kelly '18 [1-2]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 6 7 6 6 5 5 8 4 47 Katie Morse '19
Elizabeth O'Brien '18
The Taft School The Taft School Big Red Rhinos 7 9 9 9 2 6 9 8 59 Preston Rylee '19
Emily Crouch '19
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 9 65 Isabelle Cadene '17
Anneli Merivvara '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and NicholsBB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights11335577
Boston Latin SchoolBoston Latin School Wolfpack22446688
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons33557799
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen44668811
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Magician55779922
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders66881133
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens77992244
The Taft SchoolThe Taft School Big Red Rhinos88113355
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raider99224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and NicholsBB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights22446688
Boston Latin SchoolBoston Latin School Wolfpack33557799
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons44668811
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen55779922
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Magician66881133
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders77992244
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens88113355
The Taft SchoolThe Taft School Big Red Rhinos99224466
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raider11335577

Conditions — 04/23/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.2 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From N (5°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1009.4 hPa Rain0.18 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Duxbury Bay Maritime School: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Duxbury Bay Maritime School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Duxbury Bay Maritime School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →